From Yasir on Tue, Jan 27, 2015 at 16:56:08 from 99.20.240.157
written by Michael or James Bond sorry I had to do that one. Nice back on the doubles
From Sasha Pachev on Tue, Jan 27, 2015 at 17:00:45 from 192.168.1.1
Jake - this would be a good data point to correlate Utah races with a nice course in Europe.
From Jake K on Tue, Jan 27, 2015 at 21:16:19 from 98.202.128.218
There's zero useful correlation between the Utah downhill bombers and legitimate courses like London.
Probably more reasonable to compare it to something like Chicago, which I've run more recently, or maybe even CIM, which is at least in the realm of being a realistic indicator of ability.
From allie on Wed, Jan 28, 2015 at 10:37:04 from 66.249.83.169
umm, fiddy is a waay better guide than paddington. i'll send you some of his old journal entries.
From Jake K on Wed, Jan 28, 2015 at 10:41:45 from 159.212.71.17
I'm looking for someone to dress up as Paddington for my b-day party, if you know anyone. I'll pay $30 for 45 minutes and that includes health insurance.
From Jake K on Wed, Jan 28, 2015 at 11:21:26 from 159.212.71.17
http://goo.gl/n24xbX
From Sasha Pachev on Wed, Jan 28, 2015 at 11:54:21 from 192.168.1.1
Jake - there is definitely a strong correlation between performance on any Utah course (although more TOU/UVM/Ogden than St. George) and London/Berlin/Chicago. If you take 200 consistent runners and have them race a Utah course and a sea-level course, and then calculate the statistical correlation by computing the average time , standard deviation for each course, then covariance, then divide covariance by the product of standard deviations you will get a correlation coefficient that will be very close to 1, in other words close to 100% correlation.
Without fancy statistics, if runner A beats runner B by 10 minutes on the Top of Utah course, then very likely runner A will beat runner B by the same 10 minutes in London. So there is absolutely a very very strong near 100% correlation. The question to answer, however, is if a runner does 2:30:00 on the Top of Utah course, what will he run in London? We currently do not have enough reliable data to nail it within a minute, which is what your run in London will help with.
The answer will depend on whether the runner is used to running downhill at altitude or not. I do have some reasonable data on runners that are not used to running downhill at altitude, but not on the ones that are.
From Jake K on Wed, Jan 28, 2015 at 12:17:35 from 159.212.71.17
I understand how statistics work. You can correlate anything. But a one person sample size isn't going to tell you anything about Utah vs Europe. I ran hard on Utah marathon courses in 2011 (UV) and 2012 (TOU)... far too long ago to even be meaningful. For example - Ryan Hall ran 2:04 at Boston in 2011 and 2:17 in 2014... Boston 2011 wasn't 13 minutes faster.
But use my data as you please. My guess is that London is about 10 minutes faster than a Utah course :-)
From Rachelle on Thu, Jan 29, 2015 at 13:36:22 from 199.190.170.22
I AM SO JEALOUS!!!
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