Buttsweat Towel© season has begun

I think it is important to consider the difference in mileage from where you were at in the spring from where you are now. The rest of your long runs and maybe a workout or two might be able to let you know where you should start for race day. Sometimes we surprise ourselves.

Like me you started running late and this should mean there's a good deal more improvement to come. I think we get spoiled in the early stages when every race is a PR (often a considerable one). If you haven't take a look at the thread on the discussion forum Rob started about running and aging. Great responses.

Chin up!

You're not on the decline in the big scheme of things, this is just a blip. Although its a poorly timed blip. Hang in there... Maybe it will turn around still before the marathon. I don't think you've done anything wrong... I think that sickness just took a huge toll on you for some reason. Stay confident.

I'm going into my marathon definitely slower than I was this spring, and possibly no faster than St. George last fall. I agree it might be miles for you. I think that is the case for me, although in my case it could actually be the calendar. I'm going to apply for a new birth certificate.

There's no way your on the decline Joe. Maybe it's some combination of mileage and having been sick. I also think there is validity to the point of how long you have been running. I've seen gradual and slow progression in my race times and in my own running over the years since I began to focus on training year round.

Thanks for the comments everyone, good stuff. I guess it is a bit too early to push the panic button. The things that go through your mind when you're struggling...

This is not a big deal, Joe. 5k performance for me has not been a accurate indicator of marathon performance - Your training has been for marathon. I'm in a similar boat (slower times in recent 5k's than expected) I wouldn't let it worry you - its apples and oranges.

The guys in this local race series that do all these 5k's (and only these shorter races) and consistently run faster, discuss their training with me - it sounds vastly different from what we do. By that, I mean - much less miles - consistently faster. After today's race, one guy talked about his agonizing weekly 10 milers (long runs) after smoking me by 10 seconds. :)

Joe. My vote is just scale back and rest from here to the marathon. A little rest can do wonders, I am seeing this now. And, a note, my 5k pr was a lousy 19:23 when I broke 3(barely, and yes, an aided course), but still, sub-3 is sooo not off the table yet!!!@

Joe/April - thanks for the encouraging words, and you're right that a 5K doesn't mean much in terms of a FM. Unfortunately I ran about a minute faster in the 5k right before my marathon PR. Still, you never know...my last MP run will provide a lot of info, I think.

somehow I missed this race report :-(

I think you must have gotton out of bed wrong side of the bed this day.

Could be a lot of factors - I have seen your tempo miles as fast as miles 2 and 3 here. Don't discount inadequate rest/sleep/recovery or mental stress of any type.

I wouldn't worry about it. 10k race or half marathon (or even good MPG run) is a much better indicator of marathon performance anyway.

I second April's recommendation. Take the recovery days very easy.

As a side note, I am becoming a big believer in periodization. How that all translates into my next marathon is yet to be seen, though.

IJR - I think I got out of bed upside down.

dh - thanks for the words - there will definitely be some re-evaluation of training after Tulsa, depending on how it goes