Buttsweat Towel© season has begun

Hemmm...tough call. What was the purpose of this marathon from the beginning, assuming ideal conditions? You could do it as a moderate effort, but I am guessing even with a moderate effort (~7:00-7:15 or 95-92% of sub-2:55 or slightly less if you will be shooting for lower 2:50s) it's going to feel difficult in the closing miles.

My only thought is what you will get out of racing the half. You'll get a fitness boost but will it be PRable? You could do it as a longerish run with half around goal pace. But I think you are right about exerting too much, particularly if Houston is the goal race. Do what will set you up the best in that case.

I guess I am multiplying issues (like a good academic), but I am with you on warm and humid marathons.

6 weeks out would probably be good timing for a sub-max effort marathon (better than 3 out, trust me!)... not sure if a long effort like that would be better than a hard half. Could be a chance to practice negative splitting and leaving something in reserve.

You both make good points. Jason, my original intent was to PR/kick butt in both races, Houston being the faster of the two, but that would be tough now. Don't think it's PRable in the half either. I like the idea of running a comfortable negative split; would be able to bounce back quicker, though not as quick as Jake! I've only had 1 long run of 20+, so a moderate 26 would help me out there too.

The forecast keeps inching down a degree every day as well...

If you run the marathon as a long/hard workout, you just have to be sure to make the effort appropriate given the temp/humidity. What would be a 90% effort time in good conditions might be too hard of an effort to properly recover from in warmer conditions. It could be a pretty good boost, given that you haven't done a lot of long runs.

UGH - typical Texas weather. 56 and light rain wouldn't be that bad - as long as the sun doesn't come out it might be OK. Not perfect, but not a disaster either.

It's funny, it keeps going down 1 degree per day ever since I started checking it, including today. Usually the opposite happens, and it seems to get worse and worse. Now we're looking at a 56 degree start, 60 finish, albeit with 95% humidity at the start.

Still not really fast weather though, and I've kinda gotten attached to the idea of making it a training run. I could an extra week of training for Houston...