Of Mice and Marathons

I looked into this yesterday, as well. This is a really long article http://www.runnersworld.com/races/just-imagine?page=single

The big takeaway from this article to someone like me, that barely qualified, is this line: “How many would like to run Boston next year? It's impossible to say, but runtri.com, which analyses Boston Marathon statistics, received visitors from 3,500 cities in more than 100 countries when it ran an article called "Qualifying for Boston 2014." Its editor, Raymond Britt, estimated there could be 250,000 runners who want to enter.”

So, in short, @ 250,000 people are fighting for @ 20,000 spots. (If you take out the elites, the corporate sponsors, charity runners, etc.)

Of those 20,000 spots, an unknown number of people will be given preferred sign up status, either because of not finishing last year, or from having finished 10 years in a row at Boston, etc.

This doesn't look promising for me.

p.s. Nice miles on a Tuesday.

It will be interesting to see what they decide. I would guess the fact that we haven't heard anything definitive yet means they are trying to expand the field. The logistics of that are probably insane.

I think getting into the elite field is going to be a lot tougher too. 2:21 on a downhill course isn't going to cut it for me this time. I think I'll probably need to run under 2:20 on a legal course to get a spot.

Thanks for sharing the link, Tom. I don't want to get down on people running in the 4 hour range (not everyone has few responsibilities and a graduate student schedule), and I haven't done the math, but it seems to accommodate some pretty slow times assuming someone were JUST crossing the halfway point when 4:00-4:09 people were finishing.

I guess we will have to wait and see.

I hadn't thought about the elite field. I guess I was thinking that would be the least likely area they would trim and that most of the increased entrants would be non-elites, but I guess that wouldn't be the case and it wouldn't take too many more applicants in the elite field to make things more "interesting." I also thought that the 27,000 cap would be capacity, but again maybe not. Agreed that the logistics would be insane.

I thought being qualifying by more than 10 minutes would be helpful, but maybe not.

Well I guess I'm not really talking about the true elite field. That will be the same and they will accommodate whatever pros want to run. I'm talking about the wannabee guys like me who want to ride their bus and hang out inside in the gym before the start :-) Those spots will be harder to come by.

I meant to ask you how that worked, as well as the half marathon championships, which I thought required a sub-1:10, but it looks like some guys have PRs as high as 1:12 on the PDF you posted.

They might have some looser standards for guys on local teams or something, I'm not sure.

Re: Boston... There's no set rules. John Hancock has their true "elite" invited runners. For guys like me, it's a matter of convincing the BAA that you'll be competitive. When I ran in 2012, my 2:21 and sub 1:06 were enough to get me a spot. It might take something better in 2014, who knows? Better run under 2:20 just to make sure :-)

Tough to tell what BAA is going to do. At the 100th running, the field was 35,000 and there is talk about opening it up to that size for next year. Anyway you look at it, next year should be interesting and perhaps a bit more tough to get into. The new qualifying standards should limit the entry requests a bit more, but it still will likely take a couple of minutes better than your qualifying time to have a chance.

Jake: Just tell then they need some Saucony among all that Nike and Adidas!

Jeff: They haven't changed from last year have they? I am 12:08 under the current time, which isn't as good as 20+, but I'm working on it!

No, they haven't changed but the 5 minutes did make a big difference for 2013 versus 2012 in how fast the race registration filled up. Still should help in 2014 but with the bigger interest it will require faster times than 2013 to get in.

Ah man! You guys are depressing me. Why have qualifying times, at all, if they mean nothing? The difference between "Boston Qualifier" and "Boston Participant" is huge! My guess is somewhere @ 12 minutes.

I went to the BAA website and scrolled through the "Projected Finish Times" list (Which I assume means those that did not finish). I made it through 75 pages of 25 names each before I gave up. That is 1,875 people (and I was far from the end of the list) that get to register ahead of me, that may or may not be faster than me.

I am trying to put myself in their shoes - What if I had put forth the effort to get in, as they did, and was then deprived of finishing? Would I want preferential treatment the following year? Would I point at a guy like me, and say "Stop whining. You should have run your qualifying race faster."?

This is difficult to discuss.

There's no right answer. Whatever they decide, some groups will be happy and others won't. I'm sure the BAA is doing everything possible to accommodate as many runners as they can without ruining their relationship w/ the town of Hopkinton.

http://www.baa.org/news-and-press/news-listing/2013/may/baa-issues-special-invitation-to-2013-boston-marathon-starters.aspx

5,633 Runners. 1/5 of the field.

Jason, your 12 minutes under puts you in the second wave of registration I believe, so I think it's safe to assume you'll get in. Not guaranateed, but definitely very likely.

Jeff, I see what you mean now.

Tom: I always find it interesting how competitive the guaranteed entry for New York is when your compare it with Boston: 2:45 versus 3:05 (I am much more likely to run a 1:19 half, which doesn't quite translate to 2:45 full). I understand that there is more involved than just times, but Boston was one of my goals, not my end point, so I've been thinking about other races like New York for new goals even though there isn't as much emphasis.

Exactly, Jake.

I think it should help, Riley. I changed my fall marathon to a half, which is why I am concerned. The idea was to train the V02 max and LT through the fall for Boston to run another sizable PR.

Jason - I gotta think you'll be fine. Everyone that wanted to get in last year, got in. So BQ-12 is a pretty good cushion. At least I hope so, because I'm in the same boat (BQ-12) now that I have the 5-minute old man handicap. When it comes down to it, I don't think it'll be all that different from last year; I remember being worried about BAA allowing people to defer because of the heat, and it was no factor in the end.