Here I go again!

You will be the one laughing when your standing at the start of Boston 2010!!!! You can absolutely shave that time down.

I'm commenting on your blog today because I think my wife thinks I have a crush on you. So she always checks your blog. Let's see what she says. Anyway, clearly from this entry you have a boyfriend. Not a very nice one, but you do. LOL.

Lucia, Greg's calculator has been right on (like within 5 seconds) for me in the past. Based on my old 1/2 marathon PR I hit every one of the times from 5K up through 15K -- but I trained specifically for every distance (except 15K, I was actually training more for the 1/2 marathon when I ran that). I did not use it for my marathon because Greg had wanted me to shoot for a slower time for my first marathon and see how it felt without confounding it with going out too fast. I am not sure if I could have run the predicted marathon or not ... I do know that the closer the distance that you are using for the calculator are to your predicted times the better it is (e.g., 1/2 marathon time is a better predictor than 5K for the marathon).

I also believe that leg speed is necessary for marathons - meaning, if you can't run a 10K fast enough you are likely not going to be able to run a marathon fast (most of the elite marathoners, like Deena Kastor and Ryan Hall were 5-10K track types before moving up to the marathon, they had already developed a certain leg speed). For me though, the training for PR type 5-10K's is much different than 1/2 marathon and marathon training I usually train for one or the other - not that I am advocating this for everyone. If I only had 4.5 months I would actually train for a 'key' 1/2 marathon about 6-8 weeks from now (because 1/2 marathons do a little more 10K race pace speed work) - and then use that as a guide for your expectation for the full-marathon. It is unlikely, though not impossible, that you would do better than what the 1/2 marathon predicts with only 6-8 weeks more training - if you were fully trained for the 1/2 marathon and it was a good race (meaning, you had optimal training and racing conditions when you ran the 1/2 marathon). Does this make sense?

I guess what I am trying to say, is that I think for you to estimate your likelihood of a particular pace for the marathon you need to run a 1/2 marathon somewhere between 6-8 weeks out from your marathon, and it should be a PR focused 1/2 marathon. You need to train smart (stay healthy and don't fall ;-) ) and consistent. I think running on hilly courses definately helps - but you need consistent volume more than you need to charge up hills or even do focused speed work - and with your injury history I would be careful not to run too fast on your easy days ... use Greg's calculator and try to stay within the easy/long run range (or slower) as much as possible when you are running easy. You can incorporate hill sprints, fartleks and maybe even tempo runs 2 days a week (and run hard on these days) as long as you have easy days afterward (like really easy).

I am looking forward to running with you whenever you are ready to give a BQ a shot!! I hope I will ge able to keep up with you.

Hmm I am sure its possible to do it. That is what I am hoping for also. I would only say to find a plan that works well for you and stick to it very closely. You seem quite injury prone so dont ramp up your mileages to fast or speed. I bet you can do it. Its just getting you from now till Oct injury free. As for calculators I think they are a great tool to help you to decide what paces to run at based on your current level for different distances. Each race I do be it 5k to the marathon I like to have a general idea so I dont go out to fast and not be realistic about it. I think your very close to that time of your BQ its just finding a race that will get you there and then hope everything goes right upto and on race day. (sorry for the book)

I say you can do it! I don't have any experience or knowledge to back my assertion but I still think you can do it. I am injury prone too. I do well doing mostly base mileage at easy paces and it keeps me injury free. I would encourage you to do the same--get the miles in and don't go too fast.

McMillan's calculator is right on for me on 5k and 10k within a second. Haven't run enough longer distances to know about them. It says I can hit a 3:31 marathon....we'll see about that in a week and a half and will let you know.

Thank you for the vote of confidence JCS!

Burt, are you using my blog to make your wife jealous? LOL!!! I think I have a healthy crush on all the bloggers I follow (including the girls!) - you know, the student-teacher, admiration kind of crush! It's much better than having a crush on Brad Pitt or a Victoria's Secret supermodel, I think!

Bonnie, thank you for your comment, always right on! Makes perfect sense. I need to develop the speed but also get a lot of miles and definitely go slower than I do on easy days... There's a hilly 1/2 marathon 7 weeks before Marine Corps that I'm planning on doing, I guess that's when I'll really know the answer! Hopefully we can get you a flight after that race ;)

Thanks Mark and April, you are both right as well... gotta go nice and easy to stay injury-free!

Jefferey, good luck in your marathon! Hopefully the calculator will be right once again!

Wearing the headband would be a guarantee for a PR on a 10k.

You can do it, just focus on the training.

What's going to be on your boyfriend's headband after you BQ?

whats up Lucia ... no blogging? I know you are around as you have been checking out the flirting going on over on Eric's website.

Is there a link where I can get some Argentinian flag socks to go with my Mexican flag socks? I am serious, I will wear these in a race in the near future, you'll see.

Lucia, I absolutely KNOW you can do it!!! I think if you can remain uninjured, get in some very consistent running, work on your endurance and speedwork---you have got it! Up until now, you have not been able to be consistent due to injuries. So, I think the injury free thing is the key and then you have it in the bag!

Bonnie you are so funny! I'll look into the socks; I've been looking for a t-shirt with the Argentine colors or something... There is a runner in this area that wears a cool shirt from Argentina, I need to find it!

Mike, that's a good one... it'll say "I shall never laugh at my girlfriend's crazy ideas"

Kelli, you are absolutely right. No more injuries!

You all are such an inspiration, thank you for the vote of confidence!

Absolutely, you can do it. It will take consistent training without very many injuries and setbacks between now and October, but you are definitely quite capable.