sub-3 or blow-up trying

Not real happy with my run today- the achilles were a bit sore for the first time in a few weeks.  I'll need to be careful for the rest of the week- of course I am in the midst of taper, so hoping for fresh legs by the weekend- ran 9.5 miles @ just over 8:30 pace. 

10 min weights + 8 miles @ about 9min pace. 

Ran 4-miles slowly on TM @ gym w/6 strides thrown in.  Achilles is still a little sore, so I've scrapped my normal pre-marathon "dress rehearsal".  I've run 120 miles less this past October leading into Philly than the year before and am 4-5 lbs heavier.  At the same time, I recently ran a half marathon 35 seconds faster than I did on the same course last year at this time. 

Sooo, how does this all affect my marathon for this weekend?  If my achilles feel ok by race morning, I'm still in position for a pr.  My 3:07 last year could have easily been a 3:05- I let up a little once I knew a sub-3 wouldn't happen that day.  Also, I know myself now a little better as a runner which could factor in on how well I approach a familiar course.  My mileage is down, yet I ran 24 of 26 miles well at Boston last Spring with even less mileage leading in.  Plus I have an October marathon under my belt as a "long run". 

Overall, there are an overwhelming number of factors that could affect this weekend.  I'll probably know by mile 2 or 3 if a pr is a possibility for the day.  If so, I'll try to stick with the nearest pace group (3 or 3:05 group) and hang on as long as possible.  If not, I'll adjust and try to at least get a BQ under my belt for 2013.  Meanwhile, I plan to get good rest today, get focussed for a 100% effort, and then hope for the best. 

30min weights at the gym and a real light run on the TM (2 miles) to keep my achilles from getting too stiff.  Felt OK.  I normally do not run the 2 days proceeding a marathon, yet I've noticed days off make my achilles a tad bit sore.  I may run very lightly tomorrow if they feel stiff when I wake up.  If they feel somewhat fresh, I'll completely take the day off.