Nathan and I (don't know why Tom wasn't there) ran the Eagles View hill course at noon today at roughly an easy marathon pace. I chose not to stop my watch at the red lights today so of course we got stopped at nearly everyone, plus a lady stopped in her car and asked us for directions. We figure we lost roughly a minute to those delays, so our adjusted finish time was roughly around 38:30 for the roughly 5 miles (roughly 7:42/mi). That's roughly how the run went.
The rain and cool air kept many people inside today, but shortly after we started the rain stopped and by the end of the run the sun was out and it was beautiful. Similar to Saturday's pace, we didn't really push hard but still managed to hold a respectable pace for us. I think this bodes well for St. George in two weeks.
During the run again today Nathan was trying to convince me I've got a 3:15 in me, maybe even a 3:10. Tom has made similar comments, but my primary goal still remains 3:20. My PR (in the current era) is 3:27, so 3:20 would beat my PR by 7 minutes, and my BQ time by 10 minutes.
Still, I feel like I'm in the best shape of my life (knock on wood), maybe even in relatively better (age adjusted) shape than 25 years ago when I ran St. George in 2:52 at age 22 (before taking a running hiatus of about 20 years). Based on my Hobble Creek half time of 1:27:03 in August, and using 40 miles per week as my average mileage (it's been higher recently), Sasha's predictor estimates my finishing time at 03:12:11. Using the (2 * half) + 10 minutes formula yields 3:04:06, or (2 * half) + 20 minutes yields 3:14:06. I'm beginning to wonder if 3:20 is really too low a goal for me this year?
I have nothing to lose. I'm already qualified for Boston, and even if I blow up near the end I might still have a chance of qualifying anyway. I kind of feel like the only way I could be disappointed at St. George this year would be to finish with gas left in the tank. I'd be very disappointed to run a 3:20 if I had a 3:10 in me.
I really want to push my limits, but I don't want to be foolish about it. My current plan is to run by feel. I've done some "don't look at the watch" runs and feel like I have a good handle on what a "fast marathon pace" effort feels like. Based on these runs, I think I may be able to safely hold around a 7:30 pace for the first 7 miles up to Veyo. That's the pace Nathan is targeting so I'm planning to run with him for these miles. Up Veyo and for the tough miles through Dammeron Valley I plan to let Nathan go (he's a strong hill runner) and try to hold a "medium to fast marathon pace" effort without pushing too hard. I may let the brakes off a little as the steeper downhill begins at mile 14, but I don't plan to push very hard prior to mile 20. From mile 20 to the end, I fully expect that last 10K to be very mentally and physically challenging. In fact, I'll be disappointed if it isn't because that means I should have pushed harder up to that point. I hope to be well on target for 3:20 at this point, hopefully closer to 3:15 or lower if things go well. I'm counting on having enough mental toughness, and enough training miles behind me, to focus and hold a good strong pace (7:30 or faster) through the finish.
The interesting thing for me on race day will be to try to ignore my watch for those first 7 miles and listen to what my body tell's me it is capable of that day, to exert that "fast marathon pace" effort and (with tapering, lower altitude, downhill, race day energy) see what pace that turns out to be. I averaged 6:38 at the Hobble Creek half marathon. I know I can't hold that pace for a full marathon, but what pace will it be: 8:09 (3:30 BQ), 7:49 (3:25 new PR), 7:38 (3:20 goal), 7:27 (3:15), 7:15 (3:10)?
Later I will discover the answers to other questions: Was what felt like a "fast marathon pace" effort early in the race truly that, or did I fall to my tendency to go out too fast and am I now destined to suffer pain and agony as I crash and burn? Did I really train hard enough to have enough left at the end? Am I really mentally tough enough to hold on and pull out everything that's left?
It will be fun finding out! I can hardly wait!
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