Penny

nice job with the long run, penny. your plans sounds good.

Thanks Allie! I was actually stalking all your race results to try to get an idea of how you progressed with each marathon. I am really struggling with what pace/time to aim for... especially as a first timer. Whats your best gauge of what you're capable of running?

Saw your blog and just got the Hansens Method book. The outlined training method seems pretty solid. Sounds like you are definitely on the right path and training diligently. Good luck with your marathon.

e: Performance - On the home screen of this website (I am sure you have seen it) there is a race predictor for different marathon results based on current weekly mileage and a recent best for a specific distance. That would be a start (and yes most marathons listed are of Utah origin) - although I am sure Allie would have a more sage response.

yes, using a predictor/calculator can be helpful in giving you a reasonable estimate on what you should aim for on race day. try the mcmillan calculator: http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/

it's definitely a matter of trial and error, but the two things i usually use as a fitness gauge before a marathon are my easy/base pace and a 5k time trial. although my easy pace can fluctuate greatly on any given day, when i am in shape and "ready to go", that pace will be about 30-40 seconds slower than the pace i can expect to maintain during the marathon. this is a pace that i naturally gravitate to on an easy run, when i'm not thinking about it or actively pushing -- it's just the pace that feels right. it's not a jog, but there is no major effort going into maintaining that pace. if your goal pace is 7:20, then 8:00 should feel pretty comfortable (and it looks like it does since you ran 18 at an average of 8:06). as you approach 7:20, it should feel comfortably hard but sustainable.

it is important to note that my easy pace is only that close to my marathon pace when i am in shape for the marathon, and often times i only start feeling that way 3-4 weeks out. that is when i know i am getting race ready.

when i first started marathoning, i had no idea what pace i should or could run. i basically just started running and fell into a pace that i felt was sustainable. over time, that pace went down when i learned more about my limits and tested how fast i could push and for how long. i would say with this being your first, err on the slow slide starting out, and see how that feels. the biggest mistake is going out too fast, and it's really easy to do when you are caught up in the race atmosphere and your adrenaline gets going. if your goal is 7:20, maybe aim for a few 7:30 - 7:35s for the first 5k, and ease into the pace over time.

Thanks for your responses! Yep, I have been plugging various race times into the McMillan calculator. I just ran a HM at probably 90% effort (untapered etc)... I think I am in shape to run it about 1 minute faster than I did... which would give me a 7:20 marathon pace. But I dont know whether Im being too aggressive with that estimate.

I think the plan of starting out in the 7:30s for a few miles is a good one and consistent with advice ive received from others.