Sub-3:00 SGM group

[James Winzenz]

I was just looking over the difference between Sasha's race calculator on the course tool and Scott Zimmerman's predictor - I actually put mine in for 2:59:00, and my splits were extremely close to yours, Tom.  It seems like a 1:32 first half is just about right, which gets rid of both of the worst hills at Veyo and Dammeron Valley.  Based on recommendations from others, I am going to intentionally ease off on Veyo and Dammeron Valley, and potentially go a little slower than even Sasha's calculator has listed.  I am really looking forward to meeting up with everyone in the pace group, whether it be at the elite corral or on the road.  I truly believe that the more of us that can hang together, the more we will all pull each other along towards achieving our goals.  SGM, here we come!

[Josse]

James that is my plan to the tee.  I have learned the hills can take it out of  you  and these are early.  You have to completely listen to your body and not get your heartrate up to much through the uphill section. 

[Paul (RivertonPaul)]

Sub 180 minute.

[Tom]

Hey guys I know it's probably a bit premature to be watching the weather forecasts for the race, but I notice now the latest long-range forecast shows a cooling heading into Oct 4 with a chance of showers.  I'm thinking overcast with even some "light" rain might be pretty dandy, as long as it's not too muggy. I say bonzai and massive PRs for one and all!!!

[Tom]

Andy - one other thing....I think we've got Terry B (oldbean.fastrunningblog.com) talked into joining the sub-3 group, at least for the 1st half of the race. Terry got a last minute entry just a few days ago and hasn't really been training for a marathon, but he's run a few sub-3s at SGM in past years and is still in pretty decent shape this year. I don't want to speak for Terry but I don't think he ever checks the discussion forums.

So if you can add him to the group that we be great. I think that about gets us to an even dozen! There are also a few non-bloggers I know who will be joining us so we should have a nice sized group.

[James Winzenz]

Here's the current Accuweather forecast for Central, UT (start of race):

Friday, Oct 3  High: 73 °F RealFeel®: 70 °F
A full day of sunshine
Friday Night, Oct 3  Low: 41 °F RealFeel®: 39 °F
Increasing cloudiness

Saturday, Oct 4  High: 56 °F RealFeel®: 57 °F
Cooler with rain at times

And the forecast for St. George:

Saturday, Oct 4  High: 75 °F RealFeel®: 74 °F
Cooler with periods of rain

I like that forecast, sounds really nice - actually fairly similar to last year, although no rain last year.  Should still be in the 50's or low 60's when we finish the race if this forecast holds up.

[Marcie J.]

And the forecast for St. George:

Saturday, Oct 4  High: 75 °F RealFeel®: 74 °F
Cooler with periods of rain

I like that forecast, sounds really nice - actually fairly similar to last year, although no rain last year.  Should still be in the 50's or low 60's when we finish the race if this forecast holds up.
They always say its going to rain here but it never does! I really doubt we will get any rain.

[Justin]

I may be there in that time range.  I know I have that kind of speed, but the last few weeks, I've been pretty low on miles since I got a pretty bad cold and chest congestion.  I was, however, right around Paul Thomas at the Spanish Fork half.  I don't have any fastrunningblog apparel, but I might have to pick some up at the expo.  How much are the shirt or singlet? 

[Cameron Clarke]

I got the shirt for like 13.80 or so last weekend. They were out of the singlet, but said they would have them in this Monday or so.

[Paul (RivertonPaul)]

Bumping with Andy's last list:

Andy
Josse
Marcie
Paul VK
Tom
Cal   --- (How is Cal doing?)
James
Cameron
Matt
Bill (wildbull)
Paul T
Terry
Rhett (SGM Forum)
Tommy (SGM Forum)


Andy, you can correct this if necessary.

[Cameron Clarke]

Update on the singlets - I just heard that they should have singlets at the expo but probably not before that. I've got one saved for me. . . You might want to call and check.

I'm kinda worried about going out with you guys though. I really, really want to hit under 3:10, and think I can do it with the hills, but I'm afraid of just going out way too fast and killing myself before the half.  Should I just come start with you guys and see how I'm doing and decide?

[Jon Allen]

Cameron- if it is more important to you to definitely hit 3:10 than it is to try for 3:00 and maybe blow up (i.e. 3:11+), then I would suggest going out slow.  Rule of thumb is to not vary your pace by more than 8 sec/mile to stay with a group (either faster or slower), so going with the sub-3:00 group when you are worried about 3:10 may not be recommended.  When in doubt, it is better to start a bit slow and finish strong than to start fast and blow up, especially on St. George where the downhill second half favors those who feel good at the end.  You can make up time the second half of the race if you start a bit slow, but you can lose TONS of time if you start too fast.  Plus you can make friends along the course who have your same BQ goal (there will be a lot of them) and use them as teammates rather than this faster group.

Another thing to keep in mind- the last 2-6 miles of a marathon will be harder than you expect (compared to training runs).  So even if you feel real good at mile 13, you will still be surprised how hard it gets by the end. 

My two cents.

[Josse]

I agree with Jon- I always say saving a couple minutes in the begining can save you 20 mins. in the end, or even more.  Just becuase the last part of the marathon is down hill donesn't mean you will run it fast, you have to have enough in the legs to use the down.  I would go out to hit the fisrt half in a 1:35 that will put you in the range that if you feel good you could go under and if not still get your 3:10.  Still come introduce yourself so we can look for you if you decide to start out alittle slower.  BTW-I will be starting out alittle slower as well probably 1:32ish range.

[James Winzenz]

The Clif Bar pace team will be at St. George this year as well, and will most likely have a 3:10 pace group (they did last year).  You might check with the Clif Bar team at the Expo.  I would recommend going out with them for the first half (gets you past the two big hills), and then if you are feeling good, you can start to speed up for the second half.  You might not break 3:00, but like Jon said, if 3:10 is more important to you, this is the way to go.  There is a greater chance of crashing and burning if you are not quite ready and start out too fast.  BTW, I am with Josse (and Paul and I think Tom as well, based on his blog), and will be planning on hitting the half at about 1:32 (1:31:30-1:32).  This goes along with Sasha's analyzer in the course tool for hitting a 2:59.

[Paul (RivertonPaul)]

Last year the Cliff 3:10 group ended up being more like a 3:06 group accelerating the pace about mile 20.  The group got ahead of pace, which was great for those who could handle it, but I personally think it would have been better for the pacer to have helped the few who were struggling to hold 3:10 rather than leading the strong group.  It ended up that the pacer had to kill some time at the end before cross the finish line so that his time was closer to 3:10.   It does lend support, however, that negative splits are the way to go as even the 3:10 pacer ran a negative split.