Is sub-3:00 in the cards for me in SGM 2008?

[Paul Thomas]

I'm looking for you experts to review my training and race performances and give me your opinion of what my chances are of running sub-3:00:00 (2:59:59) at the St. George Marathon in a few weeks.

Coming into last year's St. George Marathon I was targeting a 3:20 finish (a 7 min PR) for most of the year. A few weeks before the race some running buddies were trying to convince me I could run 3:15. The night before the race Sasha convinced me I had a shot at 3:10, so I went for it. I finished in 3:07 (a 20 min PR).

After the race I set my target for this year at sub-3:00, with great plans to boost my weekly mileage and eventually work up to including long, hard tempo runs. In my excitement I pushed too hard too soon and ended up fighting injuries in January and February, and again after the Utah Valley Marathon in April.

Since then I've managed to build up my mileage, though somewhat short of my original goals. While my total mileage in 2008 is only slightly ahead of 2007, I think I have actually done quite a bit better this year. The injuries early in the year cut into my mileage. My typical weekly mileage (no injuries, no races) is up about 10 miles per week this year. Last year it was around 35-45 miles per week, this year it has been more like 45-55 miles per week.

The tempo runs have been few and far between, mostly in the form of races. After the early injuries, I've been cautious to not push too hard. Nevertheless, I set new 5K, 10K, and 1/2 marathon PRs, and set course PRs in every race except one (missed it by 6 secs on a gloomy rainy day - but I won an iPod Nano in the raffle).

While there has definitely been some improvement this year, I've been skeptical that I've improved enough to reasonably hope for sub-3:00. I had heard that doubling your Spanish Fork half marathon time was a good rule of thumb for what you can expect at St. George, so I decided to run it and see how close I could come to 1:30. I finished in 1:29:57.

So I guess there's a chance. When Tom asked Sasha about 2xSFHM=SGM, Sasha said, "If you are running 60+ miles a week and do not blow up on the downhill you should be able to run 3-5 minutes faster in St. George than double your Spanish Fork time." I run 45-55 miles a week, not 60+.

My running buddies and Sasha really helped adjust my expectations last year, which allowed me to maximize my performance. Imagine if I'd run 3:20 when I had a 3:07 in me. However, I've also experienced going for an unreasonable time, crashing, and painfully struggling to a finish much slower than my potential. That's no fun either.

Here's a summary of some key data to hopefully make things easier. I've also included last year's data for comparison.

2008 Races
==========
Jan - Painter's 1/2: 1:32:12
Mar - Spectrum 10K: 39:55
Apr - Provo City 5K: 20:15
Apr - Utah Valley Marathon: 3:30
May - Neighborhood 5K: 19:54 (a little short)
Jun - Nestle 5K: 19:59
Jun - Wasatch Back Relay (I feel like I ran it pretty well)
Jun - Run Through the Lavender 5K: 21:04 (tough course: dirt, hills, back pain)
Jul - Speedy Spaniard 10K: 41:00
Aug - Provo River 1/2: 1:29:17
Aug - Hobble Creek 1/2: 1:26:14
Sep - Spanish Fork 1/2: 1:29:57

2007 Races (for comparison)
==========
Jan-Aug Mileage: 1574
Jan - Painter's 1/2: 01:36:05
Mar - Spectrum 10K: 00:41:43
Apr - Boston Marathon: 5:00:36 (stayed to finish with struggling buddy)
May - Neighborhood 5K: 20:15 (a little short)
Jun - Nestle 5K: 19:53
Jun - Wasatch Back Relay (I feel like I ran it pretty well)
Aug - Hobble Creek 1/2: 1:27:05
Oct - St. George Marathon: 3:07:02 (previous old man PR was 3:27)

This list summarizes my weekly mileage for this year and last year from January to the SGM. (I have included my planned mileage for the weeks that remain before SGM this year.)

Mileage: 2008/2007
==================
Weeks of 60+: 3/2
Weeks of 50-60: 13/4
Weeks of 40-50: 9/9
Weeks of 30-40: 4/16
Weeks of <30: 10/6 (more injury weeks this year)
Total: 1604 miles/1574 miles

I already feel like I've had a great running year. I'm looking forward to seeing what the SGM brings. Every race is an adventure!

Thanks,
Paul Thomas

[James Winzenz]

Paul, just going off your race improvements as well as your increase in training mileage this year from last, I would say absolutely, sub 3:00 is in the cards for you.  BTW, I am shooting for sub-3:00 as well, even though I have not yet had a sub-1:30 1/2 marathon (was originally shooting for that last week at the ADT 1/2 marathon, but my calf gave me problems after the first 3.5 miles and I decided to pace my sister-in-law instead).  I would be interested in shooting for sub-3:00 with you (we could meet over by the clothing drop about 30 minutes prior to the start or something).  Maybe a question to ask yourself was how you felt at the Hobblecreek 1/2 when you ran 1:26 and change, since to me that would probably be more indicative of the elevation change at St. George.  I remember reading Sasha's description of the SF 1/2 being very fair, maybe even too fair.  I may not be an unbiased opinion here since I am hoping for someone to run with (anyone else - Tom, Josse, Marcie?), but it sure looks to me like you have it in you.

[Paul Thomas]

I'm already planning to start the race with Tom Lee and Nathan Gage. You are welcome to join us. (I haven't discussed a meeting place with them yet.) They are both targeting sub-3:00 also, but with a better chance at hitting it. You know Tom. He could finish well under 3:00. Nathan is one of our running buddies at Novell (can't convince him to blog). He and I both ran 3:07 last year (I beat him by 20 seconds). He's running great and has beat me in every race we've run together this year, by 4 minutes at Hobble Creek (1:22). My consolation is that he is 10 years younger than me. I think Tom and Nathan are targeting 1:30 at the half at SG, then hopefully negative splitting for maybe closer to 2:55. I plan to start with them to give myself a shot at sub-3:00, but I expect them to pull away from me at the hills (Veyo, Dammeron Valley) as I plan to follow last year's successful strategy of not pushing the hills hard. I'll be happy with a 1:32 half (I was 1:35:33 last year). I ran a 4:04 negative split last year. If I can run the first half in 1:32 and the second half in 1:28, I might have a chance at sub-3:00.

[Paul (RivertonPaul)]

Paul, seeing how well you and others have done, I'm right on the cusp of shooting for sub 3:00 also.  I've got more ground to make up from last year (3:09) than you, but I've had much better and consistent training since mid July than I did last year.  I'll be interested in the feedback you get.

[AndyBrowning]

I think that you are very close and it is worth going for it.  You have a good strategy (not pushing the uphills and hitting the half in 1:32).  It looks like we are going to see a lot of bloggers in the 2:50-2:59 range.

[Sasha Pachev]

Your Spanish Fork Half I think is the best quality half you've run this year. That's a good sign. Sub-3:00 in St. George should be in the cards, but a marathon is a long way to go. Nevertheless, you have nothing to lose by going out in 1:30-1:32 or so. Start out on pace. If it does not feel right, back off once you get to Veyo. Sometimes Veyo to the half feels miserable, and then you can get going again. If not, at least you will finish knowing sub-3:00 was not in the cards rather than wondering if you might have gotten it had you gone out on pace.

You have really nothing to lose. You've already run 3:07. You have a current BQ. Next step is to upgrade yourself to a sub-3:00 status.

I believe your finish time has already been decided by your preparation when you get to the starting line. The focus during the race should be on finding out exactly what that time is so you can actually get it. So no stress, it is a fun treasure hunt.

[Tom]

Paul I know you already know I think you can do the sub-3:00 at SGM but I just wanted to reiterate my conviction. I think your plan to run similar to last year, ease up on the hills and negative split the last half is a good plan. You seem to be peaking at just the right time so I think you can take some risks.

[Cal]

I concur with much of what's been said already.  Improved training, improved races, and peaking at the right time.  It sounds like you have a reasonable plan to get there, so I say 'go for it'. 

And I hope to be there in that range with you! 

[Michelle Lowry]

I think you can, and it's way better to try than to not try.  Here's to hoping for good weather, something that could affect all of our times.

[Paul Thomas]

Thanks for all the input. Your comments, summarized below, have confirmed feelings I was already having and have convinced me to give it a go:

"It sure looks to me like you have it in you."
"I think that you are very close and it is worth going for it."
"If not, at least you will finish knowing sub-3:00 was not in the cards rather than wondering if you might have gotten it had you gone out on pace."
"You have really nothing to lose. You've already run 3:07. You have a current BQ. Next step is to upgrade yourself to a sub-3:00 status."
"I believe your finish time has already been decided by your preparation when you get to the starting line. The focus during the race should be on finding out exactly what that time is so you can actually get it. So no stress, it is a fun treasure hunt."
"You seem to be peaking at just the right time so I think you can take some risks."
"Improved training, improved races, and peaking at the right time.  It sounds like you have a reasonable plan to get there, so I say 'go for it'. "
"I think you can, and it's way better to try than to not try."

Some movie quotes also come to mind:
"Make it so." and "Engage!" - Star Trek's Jean Luc Picard
"So let it be written; so let it be done." - Pharaoh in The Ten Commandments

Paul Thomas at the start of 2008 SGM:
"Here we go. Let the adventure begin!"

I can hardly wait!

[Josse]

I believe in you Paul!  I have the exact same plan, 1:32ish first half, stay relaxed on the uphill.  And hammer it out the second half.  Just don't expect any great conversation out of me 

[Paul Thomas]

You had better keep your distance from me, Josse, if you don't want talking. Just ask Cal. At the Spanish Fork 1/2 I think his words were something like, "That's enough talking." (I wasn't offended.) I think you've experienced some of my talking while running firsthand as well. One of the reasons I love training with my buddy Larry is that he always seems to have something interesting to talk about. Last year at St. George I remember good conversations with all the people I ran with at different points of the race. I even talked with the 3:10 pace guy a bit. I think talking helps me run better, especially in long runs where I'm not running at top speed. In fact, a couple of years ago I started making a conscious effort to say "Hello" or "Good morning" to almost everyone I passed (either direction) while training, even when pushing the pace. If I end up running next to someone in a race, I'll usually strike up a conversation. I really think I it boosts my energy.

Don't worry. If we happen to end up near each other at St. George and I start talking too much, just tell me to stop. Oh wait, you'd have to talk to tell me to stop talking. Hmmm. 

[Jon Allen]

She doesn't have to talk to tell you to stop.  She could either grunt menacingly or throw a well-placed elbow.

[Michelle Lowry]

I like to say, "no talking in a race!" Or, "Less talking, more racing!"

Some talking in a marathon is ok, but anything shorter than a marathon shouldn't be conversational.  Even in a marathon, after a mile or two, broken sentences should be the best we can do.  Another thought:  Motivational talking  -- thumbs up.  Chatting about your aunt's garden or politics or anything other than racing -- thumbs down in my book.  Its a race.  You shouldn't forget it is for more than a minute.

[Josse]

I agree alittle motivational talking is fine and I love to talk when I run.  Ask Michelle we don't stop talking minus speedwork.  But racing you need to stay focused on the task at hand and converation just makes it to hard to focus.