Feedback on race time predictor and DesNews 10k

[Michelle Lowry]

So I just put my time in for the Deseret News 10k into the race time predictor and it predicted a 2:41 for St. G and 1:14 for hobblecreek.  I would guess the race time predictor isn't very good for going from DesNews 10k and extrapolating to other races.  Does anyone else have feedback on how reliable/relevant the race predictor is with regards to this race?

[Paul Petersen]

I put in my time of 30:27 from last year. Extrapolation was quite close:

Race    Predicted Time      Actual Time

Ogden Marathon    02:28:14       (2:26:24-->ran faster in real life)

Striders Half-Marathon    01:10:08       (1:09:25-ish-->ran faster in real life)

Draper Days    00:15:00       (15:23-->ran slower, but had a cruddy race)

Deseret News 10K    00:30:27    

Great Salt Lake Half-Marathon    01:10:29     (1:10:20-->almost dead-on)

Top of Utah Half Marathon    01:07:51     (1:09:35-->did this as workout, and estimate I could have broken 1:08 that day)

Alta Peruvian 8K    00:21:40      (21:50-ish-->very close)

St. George Marathon    02:21:06      (2:18:09-->ran much faster on raceday...thankfully)


...so...based on my experience the course tool is accurate when it comes to extrapolating from Des News 10K.

Michelle, I hate to break it to you, but you're fast. It's something you'll have to get used and get in your head. I think low 2:40's @ St. Geo and 1:14 @ Hobble are quite realistic, especially looking at the people you ran with or beat today.

[Michelle Lowry]

Ok.   Well.  Thanks for the detailed response Paul.  That's really comforting it was dead on for you.  I wouldn't have the confidence to try any times close to those predictions without some confirmation.  I'm in pretty scary territory.

[Paul Petersen]

Yes, excellence is a scary thing. You will definitely find yourself going out on limbs during some of the next few races. I remember last year trying to run with Teren during the GSL Half, hitting 15:35 at 5K (about 10 seconds slower than my Draper open 5K time), and thinking "What on earth am I doing??" You'll have some "walking on water moments", and it's probably best not to think about it too much during a given race.

[AndyBrowning]

Last year I ran Des News 10K in 38:20 which predicts 1:21:38 for Hobblecreek and I ran 1:23:59 (but was in the middle of getting over crypto).  It predicted 2:57:38 for St George and I ran 2:53:?? so it was conservative for me.  Like Paul said, you are fast and just have to get used to it.

[Marcie J.]

Michelle you are SCARY fast (as you would say)! I really think you have the ability to run those times. You are one of those people (i think and from reading your all your race reports and blog entries) that doesnt get caught up in the head games while racing, you just go out and do it. If you say you are going to do it, you do it! That is tough to do!

[Superfly]

You'll have to bare with me on this but. In 2006 I ran Bryce in 1:15 and Devra beat me and ran a 1:14. Then I ran Hobble that year and ran a 1:12 and then a 2:36 at STG. Devra didn't run Hobble but she ran a 2:37 at STG. So your going to be right there.

[Marcie J.]

I call first dibs on your autograph after you win SGM!!:)

[Michelle Lowry]

Hey lets keep the comments on topic!  I really didn't want this thread to be about me but about the race predictor and DesNews 10k.  Thanks all for the comments, though, it's going to take a lot to have the confidence to race anywhere close to those times.

[Marcie J.]

Sorry:) I will try to stay focused on the topic from now on!