Ogden Race/ Trials Time

[Superfly]

I'm not sure what to call this post so you'll  have to read on to find out what I'm really trying to come up with here. The bottom line is I'd like one of you brain busters to calculate some finishing times for Ogden.
1. What is the Ogden finishing time equivalent of a STG 2:21?
2. What is the Ogden finishing time equivalent of a new trials approved course (flat, sea level...) ?

My reason and goal is when we have the two times we (all those running Ogden) can challenge ourselves to run that time. This may be confusing because I'm not explaining it very well but it makes sense to me.
For instance if the 2:21 STG equivalent at Ogden is 2:27 then we can all challenge ourselves to run against that and see how much we have improved from last fall. And if the new trials  course equivalent is a 2:20 or 2:18 we can run against that to see where we are as to qualifying now with the new standard.
It's just kind of like a little mental challenge or side bet with yourself (if you will)  to help motivate. So if someone who kind of "feels" what I'm putting down here can jump on and help get the ball rolling I think this could be kind of fun.
Because here's the deal. Any of us who think we may have a chance at ever qualifying will need to be running that kind of race once a year from next year on- so that we can give ourselves a chance to adapt to the unknown of that race. So this year at Ogden we can have a Bloggers Trials Qualifier Simulator. We can also do it at every marathon hereafter.

 

[Cody Draper]

It's easier to do a "Draper Days" equivalent time...
Seriously though, pretty cool idea.  I would guess that Ogden is 7 mins slower than St. George, which is 4 mins faster than flat sea level.  There a starting point at least.

[Jon Allen]

Paul did a 2:26 at Odgen, 2:18 at St. George, and a 2:22 at New York.  I think he would agree he was in a bit better shape at St. George, and his estimation says he was 1 minute faster.  Then he was 1 minute slower at New York.  Although Ogden was a bit hot.  But based on that, aiming for mid-to-high 2:20's seems to have you on pace for a Trials Qualifying time, Clyde.  Then again, Logan took off more than 30 minutes from Odgen, so maybe St. George is actually 30 minutes faster rather than 7!

I'm not counting Ogden for my BTQS this year since my sickness has made my training go to pot.  I'm using it as a training run.  But I'll be cheering for you guys and interested to see how everyone does..

[Superfly]

The thing about the time transfer is it has to be equal across the board. Paul's example really doesn't fit because a) he was in better shape for STG than he was for Ogden. b). he ran that time at trials but only a  short time after STG. He most likely would have even been faster at trials on a full recovery from STG if he would have had a choice.
Anyhow I'd like to see a time that is like I said equal across the board on fresh legs and like always in good conditions. So if a runner was in shape and hypothetically ran all the courses on the same day what would his time be... you know what I mean.

[Paul Petersen]

Based on myself, Sasha, Mike Kirk, and Joe Wilson, one could argue that Ogden is on average 6-7 minutes slower than St. George. But every year will be a little different due to temperature, wind, and other factors.

[Sasha Pachev]

Ogden is 6-7 minutes slower than St. George (assuming ideal conditions for both). St. George is 2:30-3:00 faster than Berlin. There is no course like Berlin in the US I know of. Chicago is close but still slower, I think.

So old St. George OTQ would be around 2:28:30, and the new one in Berlin would be around 2:22:00.

I would not bother traveling anywhere to get the new OTQ unless you think you are in shape to run 2:20 in Ogden in ideal conditions or can run 2:22 in Ogden and are willing to dedicate a large travel budget and DNS or DNF early enough every time things do not go right . Most of the time things do not go 100% right, and when you travel the percentage of things not going right increases.For every thing not going right (hills on the course, stress, wind, slightly sick, not enough sleep)  you finish that much slower than your perfect day/course potential . As much as we like to think otherwise, there are no race day miracles in running besides underestimating your fitness prior to the race. An angel does not come and carry you on his wings, this would not be fair to other runners. So to get the new OTQ you must be fit, very very fit because you will likely have to do it in less than ideal conditions on a course that is much slower than Berlin, as if doing it in Berlin in ideal conditions were not hard enough to begin with.

Having said that - anybody who comes to Ogden with a time goal runs a high risk of becoming the proverbial sacrificial ram in the last 6 miles. The less you care about how fast you run that course, the faster your finishing time will be.

[Jon Allen]

So old St. George OTQ would be around 2:28:30, and the new one in Berlin would be around 2:22:00.

I don't understand what you are saying here- please explain.

What is the new OTQ time?  2:20?  Sasha, would you say Berlin is the fastest course in the world?  Is it just pancake flat? 

[Paul Petersen]

Having said that - anybody who comes to Ogden with a time goal runs a high risk of becoming the proverbial sacrificial ram in the last 6 miles. The less you care about how fast you run that course, the faster your finishing time will be.

This is true, not just of Ogden but of all marathons. Last year I dropped about 20 sec/mile on the middle part of the course, but didn't worry about it. Mostly I tried to stay relaxed so that I would be ready for the last 8 miles.

[Sasha Pachev]

New OTQ is 2:19 and it must be on a record eligible or honorably excused course. Which means Boston and New York will likely be honorably excused, but not St. George, and not even Ogden or Salt Lake.

According to Haile there is nothing faster than Berlin. This was confirmed by Khalid when he said Haile's record in Berlin did not impress him that much. The times also show. There have been many world records in Berlin by runners that could never get close to their Berlin performance on other courses, even the ones that are supposedly flat like London or Chicago.

[Superfly]

I put this on the other post but it also should be here as well. If running with a goal time slows you down, what does running with a dollar goal do? Anyways I agree that it's not the best to set a time and then try and race too it. But it would be fun to establish a time before each race and see how your performance that day measured up.

[Jon Allen]

I don't know if they mean running with any goal time is bad, per se (correct me if you do).  My interpretation is to relax a lot in the beginning/middle rather than worry about your goal time.  Then you will actually have energy left at the end to finish strong and save lots of time.  Not speaking from much experience, of course, as I am the slowest guy out of us.

[Kory Wheatley]

I know were talking about the difference between Ogden and St. George marathon's.  But, how much slower is the Salt Lake marathon compared to the Ogden marathon?  What have some of you come up with as far as a strategy  running the Ogden course?  I really want to PR this course.

I know some will say just run by feel, and that's my plan, but I want to hear how others will run this course.  Sorry for stealing the discussion.  Maybe this needs to be on its own discussion.

[Adam R Wende]

Kory, I don't know the answer to your second question. But Sasha Science has Ogden as ~1min slower than SLC.