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dave rockness
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« on: April 16, 2009, 12:17:48 pm » |
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There's a nice article on the front page of today's sports section of USA today on Ryan Hall. It's worth a read. Looks as though he's in good condition for a possible win in Boston. To fellow bloggers in Boston, good luck!
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allie
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2009, 04:27:05 pm » |
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well, if i were a gambler i would put my money on ryan to win it. kara goucher, however, will not win. just my opinion...but i don't think she has enough experience yet. of course i am cheering for her. and i hope she will pull it off...but there is doubt.
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Dallen
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« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2009, 06:41:31 pm » |
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The current line has Hall 4:1 and Goucher 9:4. If I was a betting man I would put money on both of them, but I see Kara as having the better chance.
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Steve P
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« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2009, 10:03:36 pm » |
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I saw a video today of Hall on Runnersworld.com as he did a tempo ran. That guy is amazing. I think he is going to run below 2:06, but we'll see if that's enough to win. The best American Boston runner of all time (Bill Rodgers) ran 2:08 more than once and still stopped to tie his shoes. This was before all the weight and altitude training that Hall is doing. And Hall said he is feeling much better than during the Olympics. It will be great if he wins.
I also think Goucher will do well but not sure enough to make a prediction that she will win. I'm afraid she'll have a hard time beating the Ethiopian women. But she does have speed and a lot of mileage under her belt, so it is certainly possible. Personally, I don't think lack of experience is that much of a disadvantage for her.
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Greg Harris
Lurker
Posts: 28
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« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2009, 10:55:06 pm » |
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I think that Hall has a slightly better chance than Goucher, but I guarantee that he will not run under 2:06. No offense, but Boston has been around 113 years. Some of the world's best have run there and the best time is a 2:07. The difference between 2:07 and sub-2:06 is huge. Plus with the headwind and possible rain in the forecast, he will be lucky to go 2:08-2:09. I have been a Ryan Hall fan since I raced against him in high school, but there are some limits.
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Steve P
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« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2009, 08:52:33 am » |
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Maybe I'm just giving in to the hype.
I understand that a 90 second difference between 2:07 and sub 2:06 is a much bigger difference than it would be for me (dropping from 3:19 to 3:17), but that's only 3 or 4 seconds per mile. He said recently that on his 8 mile tempo runs he was running them 3 minutes faster than before. So it doesn't seem completely infeasible to drop 3 or 4 seconds per mile in a marathon. At least on paper. But a headwind could really make a difference.
It will surely be interesting.
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Sasha Pachev
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« Reply #6 on: April 17, 2009, 11:46:23 am » |
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3 minutes faster than before in an 8 mile tempo? That would mean about 9 minutes faster in the marathon, so 1:57. I highly doubt that. This makes the number meaningless. He is either pushing harder, or running those tempos in better conditions.
Having said that, I think Hall can run fast, and I do not see sub-2:06 in Boston for him beyond the realm of possibility. The reason nobody ever went sub-2:07 is that they never paid enough for somebody to do it. Also, half the time they do not get a chance due to bad weather conditions. However, in the absence of recent races for Hall I will make no predictions.
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James Moore
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« Reply #7 on: April 17, 2009, 01:58:56 pm » |
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He was comparing it to the Olympics when he ran 2:12.
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Jon Allen
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« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2009, 02:01:35 pm » |
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http://www.usatoday.com/sports/olympics/2009-04-16-ryan-hall-boston-marathon_N.htmI found 3 things very interesting that may benefit the average runner- 1) Hall says running 3 marathons in 10 months was too much. 2 per year for now on. 2) He normally takes 2 weeks off after a marathon, but only took a few days off after London. He says this resulted in lingering injuries that hurt him in Beijing. 3) He focused on more and longer tempo runs (up to 18 miles) to help him finish strong in the marathon. If it works for him, I'm sure we can benefit, too.
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allie
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« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2009, 02:55:18 pm » |
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James Winzenz
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« Reply #10 on: April 17, 2009, 03:23:27 pm » |
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I'm seriously hoping that I will be able to watch it at work (while I work) . . . otherwise I may have to take a 1/2 day! I am really excited to see what Ryan can do. I saw one of his 8-mile tempo runs (the one he was referencing) on FloTrack.org, and he ran it in 38-something. And that's up at altitude . . . I think he is going to do much better at Boston than he did at Beijing.
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Steve P
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« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2009, 01:06:22 pm » |
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You were right, Greg. But an incredible race!
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Sasha Pachev
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« Reply #12 on: April 20, 2009, 02:20:12 pm » |
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If you want to be right, always predict on the negative side. Marathons are flaky. Even with the best preparation something like a slightly upset stomach a couple of days before the race could make you 3 minutes slower than your potential. Which is why fast times do not happen as often as is theoretically possible.
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adam
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« Reply #13 on: April 20, 2009, 10:07:42 pm » |
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I think some people are actually forgetting that this race was really a good thing for the Americans, and even Hall...Sometimes I think people hold him to such a high standard its crazy.
First, yeah, so Hall didn't run a 2:06 on the boston course...but nobody has, so whatever. Maybe he was capable of doing it today being the fastest in the field, but then again, look at the performances of the other runners in the race...it looked like an off day for the most of them....even Cheriuyot, the course record holder, world marathon majors champion, 4x winner of boston, dropped out.
Second, his marathon time at boston is the fastest an American has run at Boston since Kempainen ran a 2:08:47 for the older American record in '94...whether you can consider that the "American course record" for boston because of the wind aid or not. Thats the fastest time by an American on the boston course in 15 years.
Third, its the fastest marathon run by an American, since...Ryan Hall. It's also the best placing in a Major marathon since...once again, Ryan Hall.
Also, he was 8 seconds off of second place. He took the lead and had the potential to win it...much different than NYC last year when Abdi and Josh took the lead and most knew it wouldn't last.
The fact of the matter is that he went in there and threw some punches and wasn't joking around. Deriba Merga had something to prove, too though...and sometimes that makes the difference between getting close to winning the race and winning the race by close to a minute.
As for the women's race, while Kara did a great showing (and I've yet to watch the sprint finish to the end that I've heard is great), I've got to give props to Colleen...when your a runner of such incredible caliber as she has been for so many years, and still competing as a master's runner, and you take the lead at the Boston marathon from all the "new talent" because you're frustrated the pace is too slow...that's awesome. That woman has no quit in her. And then finishes 8th, only a couple of minutes behind the winners.
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Paul Petersen
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« Reply #14 on: April 21, 2009, 06:27:41 am » |
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I think Hall did very well. Two podium finishes for Americans is an excellent step forward, and something to be excited about. I enjoyed the De Reuck comment as well.
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