Sub-3:00 SGM group

[Scott Zincone]

I called yesterday and put my name on his list.  He said they should be ready very soon.

[Matt Konold]

just curious. . . Does anybody know if there is a T-shirt version of the singlet?  I'm not a Tank-top type guy (i.e. my guns are toned/big enough).  I wouldn't mind representin', and I like the design of the singlet, but wonder if there is an alternative. . . I'll give the store a call. 

BTW, I plan on meeting you guys in the Sub-3 group.  My training has suffered in the last few weeks, but I hope I can still pull it off.  I'll see you dark and early!

[Scott Zincone]

I purchased a technical shirt with the blog logo on it back in March.  You can kind of see it in my blog pic - http://sz.fastrunningblog.com/

A St. George Running Center Logo is on the front.

[AndyBrowning]

I thought it would be good to put a list together for our sub 3 group.  Here is who has expressed interest so far:

Andy
Josse
Marcie
Paul V (or is it VK?)
Tom
Cal
James
Cameron
Matt
Bill (wildbull)
Paul T
Terry
Rhett (SGM Forum)
Tommy (SGM Forum)

There is also a guy on the SGM forum that would like to run with a sub 3 group.  Did I miss anybody?  I know that everybody races differently and pace groups fall apart quickly (usually 1 or 2 minutes into the race) but it will be nice to at least meet everybody in the starting corral so we know each other on the course. 

[Cal]

Andy, how would you feel about getting a big bouquet of balloons and leading the sub-3 group out of the blocks? 

[Tom]

Cal I think that's a great idea...as long as Andy resists the temptation to make good on his threat earlier this week to run in his birthday suit

[AndyBrowning]

Andy, how would you feel about getting a big bouquet of balloons and leading the sub-3 group out of the blocks? 

Cal I think that's a great idea...as long as Andy resists the temptation to make good on his threat earlier this week to run in his birthday suit

Out of respect for the family friendly policies on the forum I'll refrain from the hilarious response that I came up with.  I actually thought of creating some sort of sign and advertising at the FRB booth but don't think that any of us want that kind of pressure on race day.

[Paul (RivertonPaul)]

   Andy, yes, I'm going for broke again, hopefully with more determination and better results. Maybe we should all literally tether ourselves to the 2:45 or 2:30 group like Sasha does on some of those training runs and have them pull us along. 

[Marcie J.]

Add Bill (wildbull) to the list too.

[AndyBrowning]

Add Bill (wildbull) to the list too.

I thought he was going for something a little faster.

[Marcie J.]

Yah I think so, but I think he will start out with all of us.

[Mike Warren]

Bull is going for the win!

[Tom]

Just wondering how others in the sub-3 group are planning on approaching pacing. I know there are a few calculators and spreadsheets floating around out there that will give you some suggesting pacing based on elevation/grade data. There is also the course tool map that Paul put in last year that does pretty well I think especially if you play around with the smoothing and crazy-grade cutoff parameters.

I'm liking what the course tool gives me when I use a finish time of 2:58 and crazy-grade-cutoff of 7% and I've posted these splits below. This puts you around 1:31-1:32 at the half which seems to be what many in the sub-3 group are shooting for at that point. The finish time of 2:58 give you a little leeway in case the last 6 miles get ugly and you can't quite hit the suggested splits.

Of course I think it's best to run by feel and not get too uptight about hitting these splits exactly. I know for me my miles 1 and 2 are usually reversed (i.e. I typically ease into mile 1 and run it slower than 2, even though on paper it's faster), also it seems like I typically run miles 8 and 11 about the same.

But anyway....for your viewing and analyzing pleasure...

   
Splits
Distance (miles)   Elevation   Avg. Grade from Last (%)    Split Time    Total Time
0    5243    N/A    N/A    0:00
1    5169    -1.40    6:49    6:49
2    5152    -0.34    7:04    13:53
3    5047    -1.99    6:38    20:32
4    4918    -2.43    6:37    27:10
5    4851    -1.27    6:52    34:02
6    4654    -3.74    6:22    40:24
7    4449    -3.88    6:23    46:47
8    4550    1.91    7:49    54:37
9    4598    0.91    7:28    1:02:05
10    4620    0.43    7:11    1:09:17
11    4689    1.30    7:30    1:16:47
12    4688    -0.02    7:03    1:23:50
13    4600    -1.67    6:42    1:30:33
14    4525    -1.41    6:44    1:37:17
15    4340    -3.51    6:30    1:43:47
16    4085    -4.84    6:20    1:50:07
17    3954    -2.47    6:33    1:56:41
18    3794    -3.03    6:30    2:03:11
19    3761    -0.63    7:02    2:10:14
20    3647    -2.17    6:34    2:16:48
21    3399    -4.69    6:20    2:23:09
22    3276    -2.33    6:43    2:29:52
23    3060    -4.10    6:28    2:36:21
24    2907    -2.90    6:36    2:42:57
25    2778    -2.44    6:32    2:49:30
26    2690    -1.66    6:41    2:56:11
26.2556    2694    0.26    1:48    2:58:00

[Tom]

Andy also gave me a link to the Zimmerman pace calculator for SGM so I decided to post that data as well for those runners who prefer running more even pace rather than charging the downhills and easing up more on the uphills.  In the end we'll all need to run however works best for us. The good thing is that we have a large enough group shooting for sub-3 that at any point we should be able to find somebody we know to run with and pull each other along.

ST. GEORGE MARATHON PACE CHART
Marathon Time           Average Pace: 06:47 
Weighting
Factor Mile Pace (min) Splits Mile Note
1.04 1 07:02  0:07:02  1 Start slower than average pace
1.02 2 06:54  0:13:55  2   
0.98 3 06:37  0:20:33  3 Downhill
0.96 4 06:29  0:27:02  4 Steeper downhill
1.00 5 06:45  0:33:47  5   
1.00 6 06:45  0:40:33  6   
1.00 7 06:45  0:47:18  7   
1.12 8 07:34  0:54:53  8 Veyo Hill!
1.07 9 07:14  1:02:06  9 Uphill grade
1.04 10 07:02  1:09:08  10 Uphill grade
1.08 11 07:18  1:16:26  11 Uphill grade
1.03 12 06:58  1:23:24  12 Uphill grade
1.00 13 06:45  1:30:09  13   
0.98 14 06:37  1:36:47  14 Steeper downhill
0.95 15 06:25  1:43:12  15 Steeper downhill
0.98 16 06:37  1:49:49  16 Steeper downhill
0.98 17 06:37  1:56:27  17 Steeper downhill
0.98 18 06:37  2:03:04  18 Steeper downhill
1.03 19 06:58  2:10:02  19 Slight uphill part
0.98 20 06:37  2:16:39  20 Steeper downhill
0.94 21 06:21  2:23:00  21 Steeper downhill
0.98 22 06:37  2:29:37  22 Steeper downhill
0.99 23 06:41  2:36:19  23 Still downhill, but slower because of fatigue until the end
0.99 24 06:41  2:43:00  24   
1.00 25 06:45  2:49:46  25   
1.00 26 06:45  2:56:31  26   
1.00 0.2 06:45  2:58:00  26.2   

[Paul Thomas]

Andy mentioned this sub-3:00 group on my blog today, so I looked it up and thought I'd chime in.

My goals are 2:59:59.99/sub-3:07(PR)/3:30(BQ). I think I'm in better shape than last year when I ran 3:07:02, so I think sub-3:07 is a reasonable goal under good race conditions, but sub-3:00 is a real stretch. Last year was a "stars aligned" run for me under favorable race conditions. While I've set PRs in most of my races this year, and my average weekly mileage is about +10 over last year, my improvement hasn't been at the 16 secs/mi faster level I would need for sub-3:00.

On the bright side, I do seem to be peaking at about the right time, with my strongest (not fastest) race of the year being my most recent race, the SF half marathon, in 1:29:57. It's a tough half, and many experienced marathoners say doubling it is a pretty good estimator for St. George, so that says I might be capable of 2:59:54, only 6 seconds of wiggle room. I did manage to finish a little ahead of Cal and Josse in that race, and they are both in this sub-3:00 group, so maybe I'm not totally crazy to be giving sub-3:00 a go. I already have a BQ, so I've got nothing to lose.

I've told Tom and our buddy Nathan that I would start out the race with them and try to stick with them at least to Veyo (7 miles). This is the only point of the race that I will intentionally speed up or slow down to stay with a group. My intent is to "ride them" to Veyo at a pace quick enough to at least give me a shot at sub-3:00. They are both capable of 2:50-2:55, so the pace will be conservative for them and not so conservative for me. I fully expect them to pull away from me at this point (if they haven't already). They are targeting around 1:30 for the half. My goal is to hit it around 1:32. I plan to back off the pace slightly and not push too hard through the uphill section (Veyo thru Dammeron Valley). I ran a 4:04 negative split last year. If I can match that this year, then running the two halves in 1:32 and 1:28 will put me right round 3:00:00 (like I said earlier, very little wiggle room).

From Veyo on I plan to lock into a pace, an effort level actually, that feels sustainable to me, making minor adjustments as my body speaks to me along the way. I would love to have company. Even while "locked in" I can converse and enjoy what's going on around me, as long as I keep checking back in with my body periodically to see how it's doing. I would welcome any of you running along with me. Just keep in mind that once I'm "locked in" to my "marathon pace effort" I'm not going to be too likely to speed up or slow down much just to run with somebody. (Sounds kind of unfriendly doesn't it?) I'm really a pretty friendly guy, it's just that I don't have a lot of wiggle room. I'll have to squeeze every second I can out of every mile while trying very carefully to not cross that hard-to-detect line that will leave me running 10:00 miles at the end.

I look forward to seeing/meeting all of you in the corral. As I usually do, I plan to wear the white short sleeve FRB shirt (like Scott's, my body's not singlet worthy either), blue RaceReady shorts, and white hat.

I agree with Sasha that maybe the best place to meet people to run with is on the road, hitting the aid stations at target pace. I also agree with Tom that we have a large enough group shooting for sub-3:00 that at any point we should be able to find somebody we know to run with and pull each other along.

It's going to be a great adventure! I can hardly wait!

BTW, This morning while driving the Jr. High carpool I was saying how excited I was about the marathon next week. A neighbor girl couldn't understand why someone would be so excited to do something so hard that it leaves them so exhausted at the end that they can hardly stand. I'm sure there have been many books and articles written on the topic, but the only thing I could come up with was, "Don't knock it 'til you've tried it."