Ogden course pacing

[Michelle Lowry]

Does anyone have a spreadsheet they have developed with splits adjusted for altitude changes for the miles of the Ogden marathon?  Having data like that will help me to be able to visualize and prepare for the course.  Or if anyone thinks they ran pretty close to ideal splits in past races, let me know so I can look up your race report and take a look at your splits that would be great too.

On a separate Ogden marathon note, my 1:27:09 flat half converts to a 3:06-3:07 Ogden marathon time according to the race predictor, which is slower than a flat sea level time (about 2:59) and slower than my boston prediction (3:02).  Do any of you experienced marathoners have any commentary on whether Ogden is a slower course than boston or a flat sea level race?  Those predictions suprised me.  It also frustrates me to see that my nearest race shows I am far from being able to break my PR (3:00:41) or 3:00.

[Josse]

I would read Paul P race report it is very detailed.

[Paul Petersen]

Also, blog posts:

http://marathongis.com/blog/?p=87

http://marathongis.com/blog/?p=67

OMI - although it's nice to calculate projected splits from topography, it's usually better to just run by feel and use things like Sasha's course tool or other pace calculators (including my own) as a general guideline and for mental preparation. Sounds like that's what you want to do anyway, so just don't get too locked into the actual numbers.

[Josse]

Run by feel is exactly what Sasha told me.  I think that is all you can do anyway because you never know what that day is going to bring you, roses or thorns.

[Michelle Lowry]

OMI - although it's nice to calculate projected splits from topography, it's usually better to just run by feel and use things like Sasha's course tool or other pace calculators (including my own) as a general guideline and for mental preparation. Sounds like that's what you want to do anyway, so just don't get too locked into the actual numbers.

That's what I plan to do.  Just get an idea of the topography from the splits and use them as guidelines for my visualizations.  I generally use splits to make sure I don't go out too fast, as well.

[Sasha Pachev]

First, I would not trust my predictor for your marathon in Ogden in your case. Right now you are not fit to run a marathon in a number of ways. Because of that I would shoot for no faster than 3:12 realizing that things could go much worse and plan for a month of PT/chiro and cross-training afterwards  if you do choose to run it. It is a very bad idea to run a marathon with a body that was fit earlier but is temporarily out of shape.

We do have Ogden profile in the Course Tool at http://fastrunningblog.com/course.php?course_id=131 . There are some problems with the elevations. Mile 20 does not have a half-mile long uphill climb. I think Paul accidentally sent the course up a mountain in the Ogden Canyon which is easy to do if your geo-coding is slightly off. If you set the crazy grade correction to 4% you get decent results for all other miles.

[Michelle Lowry]

Here's the problem:  I don't want my very second marathon to be St. George in October.  Everyone I have heard from says Deseret News is a beast and to avoid it, and Park City is its own animal (altitude, trail) so it wouldn't provide the experience I am looking for.  I want to learn, and that's why I want to race it.  My weekly mileage going 10 weeks back shows the following:

10 weeks ago: 57.9 (13.5 longest run)
9: 45.65 (16 miler longest run)
8: 49.26 (20.12 miler longest run)
7: 46.99 (16.75 longest run)
6: 42.36 (15.01 longest run)
5: 47 (20 miler longest run)
4: 44.98 (1/2 marathon in 1:27:09, total of 18.6 miles that day)
3: 18.51 (9.41 longest run)
2: 22.22 (8.22 longest run)
1: 47 (14 will be this Saturday's run)

I propose next week 50-55 miles (20 miles Sat)
then the following week 55-60 miles (16 Sat)
then race week 60 miles (28 Sat).

I think by race week I will be in about the same shape as when I ran the April 5th 1/2 marathon if not a little better.  I will be rested and thus my body can heal and take in the extra miles. 

So basically no taper, my preparation is definitely far from ideal, but I only did 3 20 milers before St. George.  I think I am on the fringe of the race being a bad idea, but I am thinking to take it easy until the last half and just try to learn more about marathoning before the bigger race in the fall. 

So what are everyone's thoughts after Sasha's admonishment and my semi-preparation?  I will stop short of calling Sasha a wet towel because if I truly shouldn't be running the race I don't want to do it and I want people's honest advice.  However, I want to do it. . .

[Dale]

Okay, I'll dive headfirst into the deep-end here....

First, if your primary goal is marathon experience versus trying to set a PR *and* you race it that way, I believe there's likely less risk involved.  After all, it's only going to be 6.2 miles longer than your training run on Saturday, right?
Second, plenty of "hare-brained" schemes work out when they very well shouldn't.  Of course, plenty fail to.  The point is that you never know what kind of marathon day you're going to have until it's there.  If you look at your recent lowered mileage as a rest and recovery period, then you're in prime shape for this race!

Since you're injury free and feeling fit enough to at least run it, I'd say go for it, just temper your expectations with reality.  Hold yourself back a bit more than perhaps you normally would in the beginning just to hedge your bets, enjoy the middle miles, and let loose whatever is left the last 10k or so.  Oh wait, that's what you're supposed to do *normally*

So accept that it probably won't be a PR day, likely will be a bit slower than you'd like it to be, and run what you feel like on that particular day.  Who knows, you may surprise yourself.

Oh yeah, and have fun!

[Josse]

I agree with Dale.  Just remeber it is the experience you want.

[adam]

I agree with Dale.  Just remeber it is the experience you want.

I seem to remember Josse's last experience ended with a win off a training run, so that might be a good way to think about this marathon Michelle- a longer training run.

[Jon Allen]

Yup, I agree and that is what I will be doing at Ogden, too.  Treat it like a good training run and start off slower than you would for a normal marathon.  No PR goal.  If things go well, you can pick up the pace towards the end.  If not, you didn't completely wipe yourself out, and you can even quit if things get real ugly.  Temper expectations and you will be ok.

[Sasha Pachev]

Michelle:

We can pace you through an uneventful marathon at some point if experience is all you want. In fact, Park City is a good one for experience as well. Slow, but gives you experience without DesNews leg damage. DesNews is brutal on the legs, but it pays. Perhaps exactly for that reason - people are afraid to run it. And you can sing "And should we die before our journey's through, happy day, all is well" as you climb the Little Mountain and remember the pioneers who had to travel for much longer, no aid stations on the course, no paved roads, etc. And Jon Ndambuki who pays his bills through marathon prize money and needs to be able to run multiple marathons in a year competitively has been coming every year. So he must not think it is that bad.

DesNews, on the second thought might not be that brutal after all. It just allows me to experience what most other people do in a marathon. Which is why I think it is bad. But in truth, I think once your quads tear, it just does not get any worse.

[Josse]

Sasha that is a great idea- we should do this sometime in the summer.  We could do the UVM course it was a good one.  And we could try to get alot of people to do it so there is a couple of differant goal paces.

[adam]

If you got enough people, you could have then all join in at various points along the course and keep things fun. Start with one and finish with a whole big group.

[AndyBrowning]

We could do the UVM course it was a good one.

It's a good one if you take out the dirt "road" between the airport and the lake.