Help with pacing strategy after significant gain in fitness

[Jackie]

My marathon PR (April 2012) is a 3:55. I've trained hard since then to qualify for Boston (3:35) using the Pfitzinger 18/55 (a couple rounds), and I am trying to figure out the best pacing strategy for the Disney Marathon where I will try to BQ. I've experienced pretty significant gains in fitness.

Here's my old training info for when I ran 3:55:
- followed Hal Higdon peak at 40 miles/week
- 9:30 min/mi average pace for long runs (expect 20 mile run at 8:55 min/mi average pace)
- 9:00 to 9:30 min/mi pace for weekday runs
- was able to run 800 m repeats around 7:30 to 7:45 min/mi pace
-5k PR 22:40 (7:18 min/mi), 8k PR 38:25 (7:43 min/mi)

Here's my current fitness:
-Round and a half of Pete Pfitzinger 18/55 (but peaked at 57 miles bc did 22 miler instead of 20)
-Typically target 8:15 to 8:18 min/mi but have run 18 miles at 8:00 min/mi, 22 miles at 8:03 min/mi, and 17 miles at 8:07 min/mi (day after racing 10k)
-once a week 10 to 14 mile midweek run around 7:32 to 7:45 min/mi pace
-able to run 800 m repeats around 6:22 to 6:32 min/mi pace
-15k PR 1:10:17 (7:33 min/mi), half marathon PR 1:41:40 (7:45 min/mi), 10k PR: 44:44 (7:12 min/mi; most recent)

I've read the recent Running Times article about how most records are set by pacing the first half of the marathon slower than the second half. I had suggestions from running friends to pace with the 3:35 group and drop them at halfway. I don't personally know anyone who has raced a marathon faster than this speed, so I'm having a hard time getting solid advice. I honestly don't know what pace I am capable of at this point. I feel like I could possibly run a 8:00 min/mi marathon based on some of my long runs. Unfortunately, Disney doesn't have a 3:30 pace group (either 3:25 or 3:35). Do I race conservatively and just aim to BQ? Or do I have more potential (based on my training and racing paces)?

[Jake Krong]

Those long runs (esp the 22 miler) would suggest you are definitely capable of running 3:30. If the main goal is to BQ, I'd run w/ the 3:35 pace group. You'll have a pack to run with and won't have to expend mental energy worrying about your pace. Let the pacers do that work. Then evaluate how you are feeling as you get into that 18-20 mile zone. If you feel like you are really holding back, drop them. If not, you should still be able to hang on w/ the group and get your BQ.

[Jackie]

Thanks, Jake. I follow your blog and you have so much experience and always give such great advice. I really appreciate your input!

I will go with this plan. I PR'ed at Disney a couple years ago running the second half faster than the first without planning to. I read that Running Times article and thought that it would be a perfect plan to start out with 3:35s for at least the first half. However, the more I read I came upon articles that talked about consistent splits were most efficient and likely your body will be too broken down by the end to run the last miles faster. Ahhh, too much information!

I finished most of my long runs feeling very strong and my recovery times seem to continue to drop. I think with the increased mileage with this program, I will feel strong in the last miles. I will have a relatively "good" store of carbs left since I will be running a bit slower than my LT at 8:12 vs 8:00, and could even drop the pace to 8:00s for the last 8.2 miles to post 3:33 (which should get me registered).

I am nervous and excited about this race. This was a mind boggling, amazing training cycle for me. Now let's just hope for good weather!

Thanks again!

[Jake Krong]

Bringing the miles up this cycle will definitely make you stronger at the end of the race. Be confident in that strength and in your training... just because "most" people can't pick it up at the end doesn't mean that YOU can't! 

The key will be to stay in control early and not waste any energy / fuel in the early miles. That's where the 3:35 group might come in handy... those first 10-13 miles.

I'm hoping for good weather for you!!!

[Andrea North]

I agree with Jake. Go out conservatively in the first half of the race with the pace group. Mental energy in the marathon is SO important. There is a huge value in running with a group and turning your brain off on pace for a while. Then you'll have that extra boost to really push yourself in the second half of the race. Of course, you have to go by feel during the race and do what your body feels capable of on that day. If you're feeling amazing after 10-15 miles, then gradually pick up the pace and then really get after it after 22 miles . AND make sure you are fueling!!

Good luck!

[Sasha Pachev]

Jackie - just run. You'll get it. If your body has your goal that day, which I think it will based on your long runs, it will find a way to reach it. If you hit the first half on target or even as fast as 5 minutes under, and it does not happen, it would not be because you paced wrong. Rather, because you did not have it that day. So the race day actually is the day of the least worry - assuming you have developed the natural tenacity and survival instinct of a distance runner to some reasonable degree there is not much you can do to make things better or worse. If you slack off in the early miles, you will have the energy in the second half. If you mispace the first half hitting it a couple minutes faster than ideal, no problem, you'll finish maybe a minute slower than your most optimal time.  Unless you are going for the world record or a PR that is on the edge of your fitness level, that is usually not a big problem.

A trained runner cannot mispace the first half too much just for the mere reason that it hurts too bad to run that fast even for just a half, and you are being held back by the thoughts of having to do another. I keep saying that there is no such thing as running the first half too fast. If you slow down in the second, it is not because the first half is too fast, it is because you lacked the fitness or health to run the second. It is true that fast marathons are often done with an even or even slightly negative split. That is because the runner had the health and the fitness to run a good second half, not because he held back in the first.

[Jackie]

Thanks, everyone! I finished my 20 miler on Sunday, the final push before taper. I just went with what was comfortable...just ran, and finished 20 miles at 7:54 min/mi average pace! I felt so strong at the end (last mile was 7:22) and felt like I could have maintained that overall average pace for at least another 3 or 4 miles, no problem.

I believe the "race prep" mesocycle of the Pfitzinger really prepared me well for this. The two cycles of racing Saturday and 17 miler Sunday was really tough but made my 20 miler so much easier.

I will pace the first 3 miles with the 3:35s just to get warmed up then drop them early and go at this "comfortable" pace.

Thanks again and Merry Christmas, everyone!

[Jake Krong]

Awesome Jackie! You are in fantastic shape... be very confident now!! 

[Jackie]

3:32:11 at Disney!!! I gave it my all, the weather wasn't ideal, and I still BQ'ed! I dropped my PR by over 20 minutes!! My official race splits were:

5 miles, 8:06 min/mi

10 miles, 8:03 min/mi

13.1 miles, 8:02 min/mi

20 miles, 8:02 min/mi

26.2 miles, 8:06 min/mi

Thank you all for the helpful hints on pacing, fueling, and the encouragement! I could not have done this without this blog. You guys make these faster paces seem like an ordinary thing. I've learned so much through this blog and have been able to push harder because I can read how hard you are pushing. I gave this race my all, but as soon as I crossed the finish line I realized this is my best now. I'm extremely ecstatic about it. I hit my goal, but I know if I continue ramping up my training (carefully), I can continue to improve. That's exciting but for now I will relish on my 3:32!

[Jake Krong]

Fantastic job. A really great even effort w/ the pacing, you did that perfectly and knocked 3 minutes off the BQ time. Congratulations!

[Kam]

That's a great accomplishment, Jackie.  Congratulations.