St. George - sub 2:00

[Dave Holt]

St. George 1st half is much harder than Provo River - I think my St. George upper half PR is mid 1:13's.  But ten minutes off that still puts the superstars at 1:03.

I was actually thinking about this again this morning on my run and wondered how many guys would ever run the same after they went after a sub 2 at SGM.  I can't image the pain and thrashing your legs would take going THAT FAST down those hills.  There may be some runners that would never recover.  I bet there would be sections where they would flirt with 4:00/mile - at least sub 4:15.

And the blow ups... they would be spectacular!

And of course, keep in mind that to cut time is much harder the faster you get.  I used to be able to cut 10-15 minutes off my marathon PR each race; if I did that now I actually might accomplish something with this hobby!  Really just saying that SG isn't as quick as many people think - but it is quick!

I'll tell you what - I wouldn't want to be in that race, I would want to be in the lead car watching the amazing feats of athleticism and carnage!

[Superfly]

Yeah watching would be fun. Because the blow ups would put guys on the ground.... like face plants and road rash. 

[Mark]

Food for thought- 
http://runningtimes.com/Article.aspx?ArticleID=10507 

[Superfly]

That food for though brings real data to what I've always assumed.

[Rob Rohde]

I think Mutai and Ryan Hall would be mad when they couldn't get in to St. George because of the lottery.   

[Sasha Pachev]

The problem that a sub-2:05 marathoner will have in St. George is that at that level the downhill is not as much of an aiding factor over any distance, and in the marathon in particular. Preservation of the quads becomes more important than the extra speed boost from the downhill. In fact, it may very well be that their limiting factor is not leg power so much as the muscle breakdown.

First half in St. George is slower than the second, but it is not that slow. Maybe a minute slower than the first half of TOU. Some data for me: 2003  TOU 1:10:29/1:17:17, STG 1:11:49/1:12:58, 2004 TOU 1:12:50/1:20:01 STG 1:13:05/1:12:14, similar trends in other years. In 2003 I raced 3 sea-level marathons after running STG and TOU, and opened with 1:12:09 (Richmond, VA rather flat), 1:15:?? (something low) Sprintfield, MO (hilly course), and 1:13:30 Huntsville, AL, flat but tired from another marathon a week earlier. In 2007 I opened TOU with 1:10:31, STG with 1:12:09, and then running in Memphis, TN with 1:12:43. I think it is reasonable to say that the first half of St. George is comparable to a flat sea-level half. Which means that you should expect around 1:01-1:02 from a world-record aiming runner on it.  Definitely not 1:06. Brandon Rhodes, while in about 2:15 honest course shape, hit somewhere in the range of of 1:06-1:07 on it in 1997. He finished in 2:15 after a blow-up, but that was a blowup not related to speed or potential.  So the question is if the sub-2:00 candidate would have the quads to live through a sub-59:00 second half.

I believe with specific downhill training the goal eventually can be reached, and will likely result in eventually breaking 2:00 on a record eligible course due to the removal of the broken muscle tissue limit and the neurological adaptations to be more economical at 4:30 pace. The question is, do you know a millionaire that would like to sponsor the attempt?

[Superfly]

From what I understand nobody would just put up a million bucks to sponsor the event. Rather it would be some kind of insurance policy. Like in golf where they do it for someone who hits a "hole in one" in specific fun type events.
Looking at your 2003 STG splits and it looks like you ran too aggressive on the first half and was unable to negative split. That first half maybe should have been a little slower and then maybe the second half would have been a little faster.

[Sasha Pachev]

Clyde:

I've tried easing off in the first half multiple times, and what happens is that I still run slow in the second. It appears that I lose speed from just being out there, not necessarily from running hard. That is just the challenge I have to live with and accept until I am able to understand and fix the underlying cause.