Utah Valley Marathon Strategies, Banter, and Hype

[mike warren]

Sasha, you lost me at hello, lol.  Ok, just for fun and Sasha seems to have an awesome talent for this stuff.  Based on my UVM time 3:07:54.  What will I run at STG?  Also, predict Clyde as well. This will give us a plus 3 guy and A Sub 3 guy, all bases will be covered.  Paul, you want to see if you can out predict the great master on this one?

[Superfly]

Wow Sasha you lost me too. But math was never one of my stronger sides.

[Paul Petersen]

No, I don't make personal predictions. I just make broad generalizations.

For fun (and because I've been meaning to do this for awhile), I'm updating my quasi-famous "Utah Marathon Comparison" elevation profile, and will add Utah Valley. This is always fun to look at, and is a direct comparison between races. I've got the profile for UVM finished, so I just need to slap on it on with the rest. I used a 5m digital elevation model (highest resolution available), and zoomed in about as close as I could while digitizing the route, so there should not be much in terms of cliff error. Unfortunately the overpass near the finish doesn't show up in the elevation model, since they usually edit out stuff like that. This means that the profile will be missing a hill, it will be a bit conservative. I suppose I could fudge something in. But the highway cut is present throughout the course, so that's good.

Anyway...I'll post it when I finish it. Here's the old one for reference:
http://marathongis.com/blog/?p=87

[Dave Holt]

Mike I told you this before... "LOL" Don't make me get off this bike!

[Sasha Pachev]

Mike:

If you happen to be at SGM in the exact same shape, you will run a bit sub-3:00. So let's say 2:59:00.  But it is unlikely you will be in the exact same shape given that a) you are really maybe a 2:50 guy, and b) you have just made a major improvement in that direction. If Clyde and Dave make it in the exact same shape, which is more likely, we will see 2:27 for Dave and 2:28 for Clyde. Again, assuming 2007 conditions, which will likely not be the case. But since Clyde and Dave will hopefully improve some, perhaps they would still be able to run in that range even in less than ideal conditions. On the other hand, if Clyde and Dave try to improve too hard and overtrain, we might see slower times as well.

In order to run your best you need to optimize your ambition. That means for a type A personality the perceived effort will be rather slacky and the preceding training might appear slothful. But it will actually be just right. One principle to remember is that if you do not skip your runs, most of your runs are 10 miles and longer, and the long run does happen, it is very difficult to royally err on the slacker side. As long as this happens, you can almost slack off as much as you want. Average 8:00 in the runs, hit race pace only once a week for only 3 miles, etc. You can get away with it.

[James Holt]

Im just impressed that I made it into a disscussion. I feel so loved right now.
Just for you Dave... LMAO!

[Paul Petersen]

I've updated my profile comparison. It's not often that I work for free. Enjoy.

http://marathongis.com/blog/?p=140

[Tom]

I've updated my profile comparison. It's not often that I work for free. Enjoy.

http://marathongis.com/blog/?p=140

Thanks for adding that Paul. Very interesting to look at those elevation profiles all together like that.

[Paul (RivertonPaul)]

Thanks, as well.