Race time predictor?

[Seth]

Hi,

I just ran the SLC half marathon 6 days ago and now am thinking about running another half on May 16.  This next race will be a flat course at sea level.

I did SLC in 1:25:15 and I am feeling very good now.  I can tell I'm still a little fatigued, but muscle soreness is gone and no lingering tweaks. 

My training started in January with mainly just base building and 1 fast set of repeats per week.  In February I continued base miles, began longer intervals, and added 1 short tempo per week.  I maxed out about 47 miles per week with about 3 core and upper body workouts per week.  In March I started picking up the pace on my regular runs, did long intervals in the beginning of the week totaling about 4 to 5 quality miles, 1 tempo mid week of about 5 to 7 miles, and 1 long run(max was 14.5 miles) at the end of the week.  I did 3 consecutive 50+ mile weeks and continued with about 3 strengthing workouts per week.  In April I did 2, mid-40 mile weeks again with 1 interval, 1 tempo, and 1 long run, but cut back on the strength training a little.  The week before the race I did 3 short, easy runs and 1 interval session the Tuesday before the race.  On race day I was a little sore in the hamstrings, but it did not affect me during the race.

I plan to run a 40 mile week next week with 2 interval workouts, and a long run of about 12 miles. Then an upper 40 mile week with 1 interval workout, 1 tempo of about 5 miles, and a long run of about 13.5 miles.  The next week I'll do 1 interval workout and only run about 20 miles before race day.

I would like to shoot for 6:00 per mile or under.  Do you think this is a realistic goal given the elevation change, easier terrain, and gained fitness from my last race?  Thanks!

Seth

[Sasha Pachev]

Seth - it is hard to improve by 7 minutes in the half in such a short period of time. However, if a month ago you could not break 1:40, but have just run 1:25, 1:18 would be a realistic expectation.

Regarding your training, I would up the mileage before introducing speed sessions. I keep repeating that it is extremely rare for somebody who runs less than 60 miles a week to use their current level of speed 100% due to the lack of endurance. And if you cannot use your speed well due to the lack of endurance, you will have a hard time coming up with workouts that would develop the speed.

[Seth]

Cool, thanks!  I've decided not to do the race.  I'm gonna work on building more mileage thru the next few months and aim for another half in August.  Thanks again the advice!