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James Winzenz
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« on: September 20, 2007, 08:20:25 pm » |
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Is anyone besides Sasha interested in predicting their SGM time and then comparing it with what they actually get? Sasha already predicted his time on his blog to be between 2:21:30 and 2:22:30, which is why I am excluding him. I am predicting my time to be 3:15, barring injury. I am a pretty good downhill runner, even though I don't get the opportunity to do it very often here.
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« Last Edit: September 20, 2007, 08:24:18 pm by James Winzenz »
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AndyBrowning
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2007, 07:12:50 am » |
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I shooting for 2:59:35 (gotta beat Lance).
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Cody Draper
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2007, 08:26:49 am » |
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I am shooting for sub-2:38 as a first goal. Sub-2:39:21 as a secondary (gotta beat Jon Allen!). But really all I care about is sub 2:40. Sasha's predictor has me at 2:37:52 (based on my TOU half time) so lets see how close I can get to that.
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Dustin Ence
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2007, 01:09:56 pm » |
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I'm hoping to be right there with Cody, breaking the 2:40 mark. I've had some decent 20 milers on the course recently and I believe I'm in better shape than last year 2:46, so we'll just go out and see what my training brings.
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Dave Holt
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Posts: 20
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2007, 02:20:39 pm » |
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This is a tricky question for me - and I think many others. You want to put a great time, but what if you don't get it? Are you ready for that breakthrough? Yada, yada, yada. So I'm taking the plunge. Here it is. Okay, I'm making myself write it. 2:27. Okay, I did it. I feel better now. No, not really. That IS going to be another huge PR for me and is going to require major concentration throughout the race. I've already put in the time and workouts, and I've backed it up with a couple 1/2's this summer that show I can hit it (and even better). Now, I just have to go put it all together. Here we go.....
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James Winzenz
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2007, 08:14:17 pm » |
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Dave, what does Sasha's predictor show you getting for St. George? I know based off my Provo River 10-miler that his predictor shows I should be able to run about 3:09, but I am shooting for a more conservative time due to lack of high mileage and enough long MP runs.
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Superfly
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2007, 08:50:32 pm » |
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With some help from above I'd like to be in the ballpark of 2:25- 2:28. No faster than 2:25 because I won't let myself run the first half any faster... so with a good finish I could be there. If I start to die off I'd like to think I can hold on to a 2:28 or so.
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Sasha Pachev
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2007, 09:10:13 pm » |
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Clyde:
Would you be more satisfied if you ran 2:23 with a negative split, or 2:25 with a positive split but being able to say "I helped pace the OTQ group, I was taking my quarters, but got dropped in Dameron Valley" rather than "I got dropped from the very start and could never catch them, even though I closed two minutes on the second half"?
My take on this - if you do the former, you may run this one race slower, but you will have a much more successful career in the next two years. Or, I'd give it about a 50% chance, you may never get dropped and qualify.
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Dave Holt
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Posts: 20
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2007, 11:44:24 am » |
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James - The predictor says I could go 2:23:19 at SG based upon my Provo River 1/2. That time is just SO crazy it scares me to think about it. But I have had a good summer of breakthroughs - ran with Joe Wilson for a while in a 10K (getting an all time PR), running with Sasha and Mike Dudley for quite a bit of that 1/2 (another all time PR) - both things I wasn't even close too until I went out and gave it a try. So... I guess that's the point - give it your best to keep knocking them down.
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Ryan
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2007, 07:48:57 pm » |
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9well according to my hurricane half and bryce canyon half times, and 45 miles a week sasha predicts 2:50-2:57. even the slower of those times would be a min 20 minute PR. based on last years training verses this years. and taking into account last years 3:29 i will be happy with 3:15 and anything close to 3 hours would be huge for me. my 10k and half times have never translated to the marathon probably because of my mileage so i am thinking conservatively.
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Paul Thomas
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2007, 09:51:23 pm » |
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(Apologies to anyone who read my blog yesterday, this is pretty much a repeat.)
My PR (in the current era) is 3:27 at St. George two years ago. I ran 3:28 at TOU last year, and 3:32 at St. George two weeks later. My goal for this year has been 3:20, which I figured was pretty aggressive. It would beat my PR by 7 minutes, and my BQ time by 10 minutes.
However, recently my running buddies at work and in the neighborhood have been telling me I should be able to do 3:15, or maybe even 3:10 or faster. Based on my Hobble Creek half time of 1:27:03 in August, and using 40 miles per week as my average mileage (it's been 50 to 60 in recent weeks), Sasha's predictor estimates my finishing time at 03:12:11.
My low/med/hi goals until this week were 3:30/3:20/3:15. I now find myself thinking 3:20/3:15/3:10 may be possible. I think I'll go a bit out on a limb and predict 3:14:55. My primary goal is just to give it all I have, spread effectively over 26.2 miles, and run courageously directly into the face of my limits, even at the risk of crashing hard (been there, done that). Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
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James Winzenz
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2007, 10:18:20 pm » |
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Paul, join the throng of 3:15'ers! That is my goal as well, if you want to join a pace group, we can meet up before and discuss strategy, help each other get past Veyo, etc. Will you be at the pre-race pasta party on Friday? We can figure out where and when to meet on Sat. morning (if you would like).
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Paul Thomas
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2007, 08:49:14 am » |
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Thanks for the invite James. I won't be eating at the pasta party, but Tom, Kerry, and I have talked about maybe slipping away from our families (if possible) for a few minutes to stop by and meet some of the bloggers. It would be nice to meet some of you so I can at least recognize you if I see you.
This year I've decided to make St. George a personal quest and not make commitments to any pace group or individual. I have told my buddy Nathan (goal is 3:10/3:15) that I would at least start with him and try to hang with him until at least Veyo, but we haven't made arrangements of where to meet yet. I've had success running with a pace group, but this year I plan to run by feel; to speed up or back off the pace based on what my body is telling me. That doesn't mean I won't take advantage of latching onto a person or group at times along the way, I'm just reluctant to make a commitment.
It would be nice if there were some sort of fastrunningblog wristband or symbol or something we could all wear so we can recognize each other at races...a sort of "fellowship of the blog" thing.
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