Fair Gap for the Battle of Genders in a local 5 K

[Sasha Pachev]

If men are racing women for prize money in a local 5 K, what is a fair gap?

World-record difference (12:37/14:11) suggests 0.89 ratio, which would mean 15:00 man = 16:51 woman, 16:00 man = 17:59 woman. Statistically in 5 Ks offering prize money that have at least 200 participants we see a gap of about 3:00 between the winners and more and more as we go down the ranks.

I am curious to see what everybody thinks.

[Paul Petersen]

I think gaps at WR levels are much smaller than in "normal" circles, even NCAA. For example, during my running years in D-III, 15:00 5K men were a dime a dozen. The time would not qualify you for nationals. But a 16:51 woman would be rare, probably Top 3 in the nation most years. A 16:00 5K man would have been cut from our team, but a 17:59 woman would have been in the Top 5 on varsity. 15:00 would be more like an 18:00 equivalent, 16:00 is more like 19:30. So I think somewhere in the 3:00 range is actually quite accurate, when you are talking about everyone except the very top tier elites. Something else I also noticed during my college running (and also looking at Olympic Trials marathon qualifiers), is that the spread in a women's field is almost always much greater than the spread in the men's field. For example, for men's Olympic marathon Trials, top runner was about 2:08, worst runner was 2:22. In the women's field, top runner was 2:19 (I think), worst runner was 2:47. The gap between men's A and B standards were 2 minutes, the gap between women's A and B standards were something like 7 or 8 minutes. I saw similar trends for 5K and 10K qualifiers for NCAA. I'm rambling, but that's just what I've noticed over the years.

[Dallen]

This is easy. You use the times between the top runners the prior year.

[Sasha Pachev]

Dallen:

Not that easy. E.g we take Slate Canyon 5 K.  The men's winner was 1:27 ahead of the top woman. Suppose we bring some sponsors next year, make it 10 deep, and do a good job recruiting. With 1:27 gap the mathematical expectation will be 9 men and 1 woman in the prizes, she will have  a zero shot at winning and will place about 5th.

[Dallen]

True, but then the gap will grow and it will be more fair the next year.

Also, in my experience at many races there about 9 elite men for every elite woman.