Fast Running Blog

So with just under 2 months to go until race day I wanted to start a little "Facts" if you will discussion about the upcoming race in June. This will be my first real marathon since STG in 2008 and really the first real race after a long injury. Anyways I just want to prepare myself as best as I can to have a fun and rewarding race. Some questions I have:
1. What is the course really like? I know the profile is "downhill" but what sections are fast, slow, harder than it looks, possible race changers... I like to know the course as well as possible. Here in STG I've run this course at least a 100 times (sections anyways) and know the places to ease up and let it roll.
2. How does this course compare (now as in this year) to STG, Ogden...? For instance lets say Simon Louise was training pretty consistently at around 70-100 miles a week and with good conditions he could run a 2:35 at STG. What would he run at UV in good conditions?
3. Who is coming? With prize money 5 deep I'm guessing there will be a loaded field of both local and possibly some african elite runners. (I by all means am not planning on winning any $$$ myself... I'd guess at best in my current shape I'll be happy to go sub 2:40- plus I'm not gunning for a hard PR type race anyways.)
4. How many runners are in the full? Could this race eventually take over STG as the new "Utah's Boston". (someone should put that on a T'shirt).
5. Is the cement road going to jack us up? I'm guessing you may want to rethink wearing "racing flats" on this course or is it not really that bad?
6. Who is gonna win? Any bloggers?
7. How low will Paul go in the half? 59:30!
8. What is the finish like?
9. Can anyone really explain why we do this?
10. Is there ever a really good tail wind?

You get the point. These are some of the ideas floating around in my head and I'd like to make them public and have others participate in the hype of what I think may become the states biggest and best marathon (this is coming from a guy who lives in STG). 

well, here goes

1. I don't know what the course is like until you hit the dam at deer creek reservoir.  There are some hills near the dam, but none that are huge.  Nevertheless, I would take it easy during the few miles after you hit the dam.  The only big hill that I know of is just past the half way mark, lasts about a mile, and is probably slightly easier than the veyo hill.  I think I made it up that hill in just a little slower than 6:00 during the race last year, and I wasn't pushing the pace.  Either downhill or flat from there to the finish, with the exception of the overpass over the railroad tracks near the end, so you can really let loose anywhere from about 14 to the finish, especially once it flattens out a bit leaving the canyon.
2.  ??? maybe 2-3 min slower than St. George???
3.  I am running the half, Sasha is in the full, otherwise I have no clue.
4.  I think the competition will ultimately be better here than St. George, but with a half added the full will probably never be as big as St. George, as the half will pull away lots of people from the full.
5.  I don't think the cement is too bad, not much different than asphalt.
6.  ??? depends on who shows up.  Decent chance that a blogger will win the half with me and Paul running it.
7.  Paul will run 59:40, but I will run 59:39  :)
8.  Not sure.  Las year it was right in front of the mall, and was pretty low key.
9.  mental illness, definitely
10.  Once you get past the dam there is a chance of tailwind.  The earlier you get there the more likely you are to catch it.  Almost no chance of headwind coming down the canyon.

59:40 vs. 59:39 will be a battle for the ages. Despite coming up on the short end, I'll remember it always.

I think Paul's little penguin picture says it all, but who will be doing the smacking and who will be doing the belly flop?  Just kidding, the great thing about races is everyone races the clock.  I will be a spectator again this year, hopefully without crutches this time.

Jeff thanks that is some good food for thought. I'm still a little puzzled about the section above the dam. I didn't even know there was a road or town up that way. I looked on google earth and it's there but I can't tell what the details are. Might be worth driving before the race I guess.
So you think on equal conditions and training that this course is 2-3 min's slower than STG? I was thinking it might be faster due to the lack of "uphill" compared to STG's Veyo and the 3ish mile Dameron valley climb.

IWhen I look at the elevation profile is see I long to to steep hill from mile 6 to 8.  What is this hill like? 

Nothing is faster than St George. My own expectations are for this course to be similar to Top of Utah. Maybe slower, if there is no tailwind. TOU is usually about 4 minutes slower than St George.

I think that our course may rival St. George.  We have a much better distribution of downhill.  It is a continual gradual downhill that won't beat you up.  You don't come out of the canyon until mile 19, and even from there it is still downhill to the mall.  The hill you noticed from 6-8 was from the Wallsburg turnoff to the Dam.  Only time will tell if our new course is faster than St. George.  They do have about 1,000 more drop than us, but I am confident that we have a better distribution of downhill.  Almost the entire drop their course gives you is when you essentially fall off a cliff those last 6 miles.  Here are the links to both races elevation charts: http://utahvalleymarathon.com/utah-valley-marathon-map.php  http://stgeorgemarathon.com/race/courseinfo.php  When you look at both charts I think that Utah Valley clearly has the better distribution for speed, but Paul is the pro.  Paul I do wish you would run our full so that you could speak from experience about our course which is the faster race.  I understand you have other goals that conflict with you running our full, and we are just happy to even have you run our half marathon.  Seth Wold says he thinks our course will be 2-3 minutes faster than St. George.  Also, I have to strongly disagree that TOU would be faster than Utah Valley.  Look at the elevation charts.  There is no reason that would be true.  TOU only has a net change in elevation of 1079, and there is no net loss from 18-26.2.  Utah Valley on the other hand has a net elevation change of 1459, and the elevation continues to drop even in the last miles.  There is absolutely no reason TOU should be as fast as Utah Valley!  Utah Valley has 35% more net elevation drop, and it has a better distribution of downhill.

We'll see, Hyrum!  ;) Please take no offense of what I say, as this thread is indeed titled "strategies, banter, and hype". The purpose is to make some predictions and get some discussion going. I stand by my prediction that NO COURSE in Utah (or the rest of Planet Earth) is as fast as St George, and never will be.

For the record, I think that TOU is a very fast course, partially helped by howling tailwinds and cool weather. There's more to it than topography and net drop, IMO. And it's not a put-down to say that a course will be as fast as TOU. TOU is probably one of the fastest in the nation. St George is simply in a league of it's own, so I'm skeptical of claims that any course will be faster.

I'm very much looking forward to UVM. Very excited. Hyrum is bent on putting on the best marathon in Utah, and I don't doubt that he can do it.

Oh, and running the full marathon at UVM is definitely on my 2-year plan. A June marathon is just not right for me this year. But a June half is perfect!

I have the same feelings that Hyram has- in that there is a better distribution of downhill grade with less uphill to eat away at you and slow you down. But you can never get a clear piture of how a course compares to STG. With STG being basically at the end of the race season everyone is faster by then and more likely to bust out PR's. I've always wished there was a STG in May and one in Oct for that very reason. Times from Oct would most likely be faster. 

I decided to do a little "mapping" if you will. I measured all the uphill sections from where we started our run today to where we finished. Started 4 miles above the base of Veyo Hill and finished at the church right when you enter STG. This is basically the meat and potato's of the course. There is a little hill right around the very first mile of the race course and I'm guessing it's around .5 from base to crest. But then there isn't anything with any uphill grade past the church to the finish. So the big climbs are of course Veyo at 1.05 miles, Dameron isn't as steep but much more pesky at 2.65 miles, Winchester Hill is longer than I ever realize at .90 miles and then a bunch of other shorter stuff to make a total of 5.65 miles of uphill grade- with the hill in the first mile of the course that is well over 6 miles of uphill and most of it isn't easy 1%. Anyways until I actually used the GPS and measured I didn't know there was that much uphill. I know there is a lot of downhill too and some flat but I'll stick by the old saying that "uphill slows you down much more than downhill speeds you up". So if UV has less uphills it very well could be faster... IdK. I just like to banter!

What about average elevation? That will come into play, esp near the end, where St George is under 3000' above sea level

If I ever get some free time, I'll update my little profile chart to include Utah Valley. Once I have some concrete numbers that I trust (I don't trust GPS elevations), I'll crunch it through a few calculators for "relative distance".

http://www.marathongis.com/demos/combined_profiles.jpg

But finding adequate time is difficult for me these days. May not happen before June!

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that UVM will be slower than most people think.

Paul your right about the elevation and that was the one area I haven't looked at. Could be a big one too.

Careful Tom, the limb might break with both of us sitting on it!

It is impossible to lay out  a course anywhere in the Utah Valley that is faster than St. George. If you could extend the Hobble Creek canyon for 26 miles without having to rise to 7000 feet you might be able to.

The "fast end of season" argument is weak. Runners that take until October to be in shape to run a good marathon are too inconsistent anyway to use as a gauge. I do not use them in my estimates.

Do not know if it was already mentioned, but Hobie Call is going to be in the race (marathon). So we might see a sub-2:20 if he is in shape.

Well, both sides are right I think in some ways.  However, Paul is right when you consider there are other factors involved here.  Once you get down to the valley side of the trail you are going to notice a lot of little variations; slope change, bridge underpasses, race day temp, etc.   I'd say it is faster/slower depending on the runner and his strengths or weaknesses and within a range of about 2-5 min vs TOU.  Utah Valley is a fast one, but defininitely NOT faster than St George however..   That valley river trail has a way of really sucking the oomph out of your legs towards the end.  Just a feeling based on my own personal experience with all three courses.

Steve, none of the course this year is going to be on the river trail.  It is on the highway from way out in the middle of nowhere, comes down the canyon onto University Avenue into Provo, and finishes at the Provo mall.

Having run both Ogden and TOU I would say that Ogden, which has a net elevation loss of 1,127 is faster than TOU.  At TOU after mile 16-17 you are sunk in the rollers and twists and turns until the end.  The short climb near the end at Main street doesn't help matters either.  Ogden doesn't get to the dreaded trail portion until well after mile 20 and the last mile is a straight shot to the finish.  I lived in Provo for a while and I go on Univerity Ave. practically every week and I can't get over the fact that as you come out of the canyon it looks like you are either flat or climbing on the way to the Provo Towne mall, not to mention the overpass climb as you get to East Bay.  I don't see how any marathon that has the challenging parts of the course at the very end is going to be faster than a course like St. George and (for the most part) Ogden that has an easier end and that has essentially the same or more elevation loss.  In the endI think these factors together with lower average elevation will always give the edge to St. George.  I think UVM will definitely be faster than TOU but my slightly educated guess is that it will be slower than Ogden.  I guess we'll find out in a couple of months!

Many people think TOU is faster than Ogden, and that Ogden is a DNF-trap. I think it's a toss up, probably depends on the day or on the race strategy. I like the layouts of both races, although they are quite different.

That is interesting Paul because I do recall seeing more "casualties" at Ogden than at any other race I have run.  Is this what you mean by DNF-trap?  If so, why do you think that is?  All I know is that coming out of the canyon at mile 14 at TOU sucks the wind out of my sails in a way that no part of Ogden did for me.  I guess I will re-evaluate when I run Ogden again in a few weeks.

I think the difference between TOU and Ogden is that TOU will eat you alive if you go out too fast down the canyon.  But if you start at a reasonable pace, the last few miles are actually rather enjoyable.  Well, as enjoyable as the end of a marathon can be.

I'm just loving this. I knew if I threw out a little propaganda I could get a good TOU, Ogden, STG and now UV debate going. It seems we have one or two of these forms a year. And although weak I still feel that the majority of ALL runners will continually improve throughout a race season and "peak" at the end... hence STG here in Utah is at the end of the summer race season and runners across the board are in better "race" shape than they were back in May. Hats off to those who are in the same shape all year every year.

I agree with Clyde- most Utah runners are in better racing shape in Sept/Oct than in May.

I am definitely in better shape in the fall than in the spring. Less fat too.

Since you are all talking which courses are faster, etc.  I was hoping to get a little feedback specific to the Utah Valley half...how fast do you think it might be?  As a comparison, if you ran a 1:12 in the Hobblecreek half and were in the same condition, what type of time do you think would be realistic to aim for on this course.  Thanks in advance for any feedback :)

Lindsey, I would say you could expect to run a couple of minutes slower.  This course will be a just a gradual downhill, not the super steep stuff you get in Hobble creek, but you won't have any of the same kind of climbs either.  I think you can pull off a pretty great time.

I would guess Utah Valley Half is about as fast as Provo River Half. So maybe 2-3 minutes slower than Hobble Creek.

Regarding Ogden DNF-trap. Ogden has rollers from 8 to 17 at 5000 feet. Any uphill at altitude is a major minus, lots of it is a lot of minus. People see 1100+ elevation drop in Ogden and come expecting an amazing time. What they do not realize is that it is not a steady 15 mile drop with hardly any uphill like TOU. You do not have long downhill stretches to get into the rhythm. TOU has uphill, but it happens after most of the race has been determined. In TOU you can blow it in the last 8 miles, but you cannot save it if you did not get to 18 fast enough. If you are holding on well, you'll just hold pace, but do not expect any amazing splits there. If you have tired legs, you may just as well be running uphill since you cannot use the downhill anyway.

That says something about the nature of marathons in general. The course needs to be laid out so that it is fuel-effecient in the first 18 miles. After that it can have some uphill, it will not matter. Early uphill is bad as it will make you either burn too much fuel or run too slow. St. George is somewhat of an exception because there is just so much of very nice fuel-efficient downhill, much of it below 4000 feet, that even if you dumped all of your fuel on Veyo and Dameron Valley you can still run OK. But Ogden is a different beast.

With a couple weeks to go I'm looking forward to seeing everyone and seeing how the race turns out. However with the rumored list of "A" gamers in the half I almost wish I was just watching it instead of running the full. Could be a very competitive race with a couple late  joiners entering the field from down here in Hayden Hawks and Aaron Metler both of who could go sub 1:07 or faster on that course with good races and conditions.

Did you finally convince them to do it?  After last week's workout, they will absolutely be running in the sub 1:08 range.

That would be cool if they ran. The more the merrier! Didn't know that Hayden was still around (thought he lit out for a couple years). Tell him to start blogging again.

He just won conference in the 10,000 with a 30:40(?) and was conference freshman of the year.  He is really fit and running awesome!

Sasha, just for old time sakes...
Why don't you give us some predictions?  It was always fun to see where you threw us all!

Some guesses are educated, others rather wild

Jeff 1:06:30
Paul 1:07:15
Hayden 1:09:00

Marathon:

me 2:32:00
Dave 2:35:00
Clyde 2:36:00


Really making a wild guess on Clyde and Dave due to the absence of recent tell-tale races or workouts. I saw Dave's downhill sprint for the last 7 miles of a 20 miler, but I have no clue what kind of grade it is, how easy it is to maintain the rhythm, and if Dave's GPS was working correctly.  Somewhat of a wild guess on myself as well. I know I can hold a good pace for 15. I do not know what is going to happen after that. I also do not know how fast of a course it is going to be. In theory the Provo River trail elimination should make it faster. However, on the other hand you get some extra uphill at 5000+ feet. On the plus, the last 10 miles are really good for maintaining the rhythm.

If anybody else wants to be predicted, post the distance you are running.

Feel free to prove me wrong by running faster than I predict. Do not prove me wrong by running slower!

Hey Sasha- Predict my half time based on 40 mpw and three recent 5k's between 16:36 and 16:42.  Thanks!

Interesting thoughts on the race!  For Clyde and I, that is actually about where we think we will be (Sasha, that grade is generous at the least and it was the best I have ever felt on a run - maybe someday I can hit a race day like that, but let me get in better shape first; and that lack of recent racing could cause some trouble).
In the half, I would think both Paul and Jeff will be flirting with breaking 1:06 - no pressure guys!  With Paul getting the edge because of race experience.  Hayden... (and his/our buddy Aaron) are kind of X factors; both super fast and should be able to hold it for a half, but kind of a lack of race experience in a half. 
And of course plenty of great competition in both races.
Anyway... always fun to see!

Yeah since the last time I raced a full marathon was October 2008 I'm going to be rusty to say the least so that is a generous prediction. I was just hoping for something under 2:40. I'm not coming up to "race" all out anyways. Just want to reintroduce marathoning back into my system and maybe pick off some road kill on the second half for those who went out too fast. It should be fun and I'm excited to come up and run it.
As for the half I agree with Dave. I give Paul the edge because of pure big time race experience, drive and race day mojo. But it's anyones race and having run with both Hayden and Aaron over the years I'd never count them out. Seriously they will turn some heads. Aaron ran a 1:10 at PF Changs for his first half EVER. Since then he has been running 90+ miles a week and Haydo is right there with him on some big workouts.   

Lindsey - 1:13:00.

I would love to prove you right...thanks for the confidence in me :)

Who else is running the full?
Steve A
Walter
Chad
Cody
Kenya's sub 2:25 guys
Alexandra Thomas
Josh Steffen
Fritz
????
Predictions?

Hobie     Call     West Jordan     UT     US     33     M     Marathon

LOL...
Paul I knew Hobbie was running. Word on the street is that he isn't in shape so we can only expect a 2:20 out of him.

Hobie is signed up, but not running. He is barely recovering from his injuries and starting to run.

If any one want to meet for dinner, me and some others are going to meet at Cafe Peasan ( this is a great new Italian rest. from the people that started the Cafe Rio's,  My husband built it and the food is great , all made fresh and from scratch).  We are planning on meeting on friday at 6 p.m.  it is in Orem on Center st and State st. in the Smith's parking lot.  Any who we would love to see you their. 

This is going to be an exciting race for both the half and the full. I am glad that I decided to change to the half so that I can see everyone come in on the full marathon. Us St. George guys are going to be represented well in the full.
Good luck to everyone this weekend!

I need help in my driving strategy for UVM, as there has been much hype about the I-15 road construction. I'm coming in from the north, and staying near BYU campus. What exit should I get off at in order to be avoid sitting in construction traffic?

I'm sure I could figure this out with some advanced googling, but I respect the opinions of locals more.

I think they got that bridge in place in American Fork, so it shouldn't be too bad. If it were me, I'd stay on I-15 and get off on the University Parkway exit. In Utah County, the only other way is State St, but that's a long, painful process, probably worse than construction. But I hope I don't lead you astray. Maybe others have a different opinion?

P.S. Best wishes on your race!

My advice is to leave early and you should be fine.  But do agree that the Unv. Parkway will be you best bet.

Thanks. I will try to leave decently early, but I still need to put in 8 hours at work on Friday, so will probably leaving around 3PM or so.

I just have to say this was a great race, and I will definitely be returning!  I can't think of anything about this race that I did not enjoy!  GREAT JOB  to Hyrum and everyone involved in putting this event together!

Not bad, Sasha- about 30 sec off on Jeff, Lindsey, Dave, and Clyde.  Closer on Hayden.  Paul killed the prediction, though.  But I'm surprised you didn't slow down 2 seconds just so you would tie your prediction for yourself!

Yeah those were right on the money.
Great race today ran well and great course. I'll spread the word that it's a winner. Looking forward to running it for years to come.

Ok, so now that the race is over whats your verdicts?  I think St. George is 5 to 6 minutes faster.  There were a few more uphill grades then I expected and at elevation. the last 10k is just so much faster at St. George and mentally easier. Very fun race and a great course, no doubt I will be back. 

Paul ended up being the dark horse. I have told him before that he was possibly a 2:10-2:13 guy in sheep's clothing. He took some of the disguise off on Saturday. I just did not expect it to come off at this time in this amount with no warning. Jeff's prediction was off due to the cold he caught before the race. I did tell him a week ago that one of the most important elements of race preparation is to wash your hands, and he did, but it apparently it was not enough. He works taking care of the handicapped individuals and changes huge diapers at his work about 30 times a day. So he is at a very high risk for catching something all the time.

St. George is at least 6:00 faster, but possibly more like 8:00. Definitely closer to 8:00 for somebody slower than 3 hours. 6% uphill grade is not fun at 5500 feet. St. George does have uphill grades, but the total elevation gain is only 600 feet with the net drop being a nice gradual 2600 feet with the second half of the race being below 4000 feet. UVM has total elevation gain of 1000 feet with the first half between 5900 and 5200 feet, and second never dropping below 4500. As I said many times earlier, uphill grade at a high elevation in a marathon is very destructive to a fast performance. It did not surprise me that the winner of the race, Hillary Cheruiyot failed to break 2:21 in spite of having every reason to go sub-2:20. Peter Omae and Patrick Rotitch tried more diligently to break 2:20, in fact 1:10:14 is a perfect split for the goal, but they both blew up, and Cheruiyot ended up coming from behind and winning. It takes a higher caliber runner to break 2:20 on that course, your average money earning Kenyan will end up in the 2:21 - 2:23 range, as we saw on Saturday.

I'm not sure about it being that much faster than STG. Maybe 2 min's. The hills on UV did slow you down but none of them are very long. STG has some long, tedious climbs. Veyo is just about a mile long. Then Dammeron is a total of over 2 miles and then Winchester is just under a mile (.90). Those kind of long climbs break you down more than some shorter little ones at altitude. One thing I learned about UV is that the finish is a lot easier than it seems it would be. I think you could push the first 20 miles of UV and still manage to keep your head above water on the last 10k.
But we'll never be able to tell. Most of us will be in much better race shape come STG and so if I run a 2:23 at STG it will be because I'm ready to race not because STG is that much faster than UV.
UV left a nice taste in my mouth and it's got me hankering for next years race. I feel like you could just about red line it on that course all most the entire way without blowing up too bad. But maybe I'll blow up next year and eat my words:).

The half course was pretty fast. You could really roll on the downhill in the canyon. None of the hills were very long, but they were certainly present. I thought it was similar speed as the TOU Half, perhaps faster based on pure topography and layout, but TOU often has a cyclone-like wind that blows you out of the canyon midway in the race. From what I understand, you can get a good canyon wind many times in the Provo canyon, but it was not present on Saturday.

Obviously I haven't run the marathon course, but based on looking at the Top 10 times and some cross-referencing, I imagine Sasha's assessment of 6-8 minutes off St George isn't bad. I might lean more toward the 6-minute range. "Ogden-like" may be another good description. St George is simply a magical course. Most people set their half marathon PR on the second half of the course, and the first half simply isn't as slow as some people think it is. Yeah, vejo and dammeron are real hills, but are not killers, especially if you just relax. You can make it up and then some on the second half.

I think as people run UVM more over the years and figure out the course and its nuances, we'll see plenty of people under 2:20. If I can get my trials time this fall, then I'll certainly give it a shot next year.

Ok. Clearly the second half at STG is out of this world and fast. But lets look at the how the halves compare. At UV I ran the first half in 1:17:28 and I was totally laid back. Not racing at all- letting people run away from me getting dropped left and right by guys that ended up running 2:50+. I feel like with that same effort at STG I'd have ran around a 1:21 first half (In fact in 2006 when I ran a 2:36 at STG I ran a 1:20:20 first half). So STG's first half is about 4 mins slower than UV's first half. Lets say 3 to be generous. Now is STG's second half 9-10 mins faster than UV's second half? I personally don't think so. I ran a 1:18:50 on the second half at UV. On that same effort I think I'd have run around a 1:15 maybe a 1:14 second half at STG. So what do you get with the half totals? Around a 2:35-2:36. So lets say I'm off a little on the first half (2 min's tops) your still only about 2 maybe stretching it 3 min's faster on STG than at UV. IMHO.     

All I know is that nobody broke 2:20 (despite several of the top runners having sub-2:20 PRs on non-aided courses, including 2:18 on a very difficult Seattle RnR course). And aside from James H, who has been long deserving of a big PR, nobody I know came even close to their St George times. You can look at the women for this as well. Yeah, I realize that most people get in a little better shape by October, but not 6 minutes better shape. In other words, I don't think the entire field was out of shape and/or sandbagging. IMHO.  ;)

All that concrete surely came into play as well.

I better be in 6+ minutes better shape by October!  (do I get to put IMHO also?) :-\

Yes. IMHO.

Let's just agree that it's slower than StG, between 1-6 minutes, depending on how many butt-slaps you get at aid stations.

Yeah but how many of those guys train on hilly (aided) stuff. I'm not so sure if anyone of them would have broke 2:20 in STG and I'm really sure none of them would have gone 2:15. I saw the Kenyans at the marathon awards and a couple of them could barley walk. A testament that they hardly ever train on downhill.

IMHO I agree with the butt slaps at aid stations. Maybe at STG this year we can get that with the elite bottle drop too.

1 butt-slap = 1 minute

I have run the first half of St. George in 1:11:49 (2003) and 1:12:12 (2007). So it is not that slow. Especially considering that in both of those years I hit the first half of TOU (which is completely downhill and was aided by tailwind significantly in those years) in 1:10:31 and 1:10:57 respectively pretty much flooring it two-three weeks prior finishing out the marathon with an all out effort in both cases for a nice pre-St. George "warm-up". I can run the worst Veyo mile around 6:00 without signing my own death sentence. I have run 5:40s through Dameron Valley. Here at Utah Valley my slowest mile was from 6 to 7 and it was 6:25. The one after was 6:02, which I believe is the third slowest. HR was actually a little high, I was not slacking there. Then the miles that followed were more in the Dameron Valley range, but I have a suspicion I would have been faster in the Dameron Valley than on miles 8-12 of UVM in spite of the net downhill. The simple truth is that grade kills at altitude, miles 8-12 are at about 5300 feet. and do have 6% uphill occasionally, while Dameron Valley is a steady 1% up at 4000 feet with no 6% spikes.  Comparing the course further, no miles where you can coast and crack 5:00, and the last 10 K alone is probably worth 3 minutes.

I like Paul's description of Ogden-like, I think we are on to something here. My feeling was that had this been on the Ogden course, my first half would have been anywhere between 1:13:15 and 1:13:45, while the second would have been roughly the same - a low 1:17. The second half of UVM is definitely almost an exact copy of the Ogden second half. The first one is very different, though.

Here are some more numbers for a comparison - in 2003 I ran the first half of Richmond (after racing TOU and St. George) in 1:12:08 with an effort that compared to the effort in TOU and St. George. In 2007 I ran the first half of St. Jude in 1:12:43, also with an ambitious effort just like in TOU and St. George, and also after TOU and St. George. So that suggests that perhaps the first half of St. George is comparable to a mildly rolling sea-level half, while the first half of TOU is comparable to a perfectly flat sea-level half.

I was 12 minutes faster at UVM than STG.  Ok, there were other factors that played into that.  How about this, I have no idea what I am talking about and yes I am a crappy runner.  I would like to run the fist half of UVM combined with the second half of STG. I am thinking that would be a pretty fast course.  That way everyone is right.  That work?

More food for thought:
http://www.marathonguide.com/results/browse.cfm?MIDD=57091003
http://www.marathonguide.com/results/browse.cfm?MIDD=2964100612

StG Ave time: 4:15:13 (49:42 StDev) - 2009 times
UVM Ave time: 4:18:40 (46:50 StDev) - 2010 times

Of course stats are not everything, but are certainly interesting. If you look at it from this angle, you could say that StG is 3:30 faster, although the greater standard deviation could perhaps indicate a bigger bomb-factor? Or a bigger "bust-a-big-one" factor?

Ha ha, but of course if you look at 2007 StG, which had perfect weather...4:11:42 avg

Paul has pointed out the Utah Valley to St. George Marathon Average finish time according to Marathonguide.com  I have put below all the main marathons in Utah average finishing time, and you can see that only St. George has a faster average.  In earlier discussion there were some that said TOU and Ogden would be faster, but that doesn't appear to be the case:
Utah Valley Marathon - 2010 Results
Finishers: 1392, Males - 799 , Females - 593
Male Winner: 2:21:27 | Female Winner: 2:46:18
Average Finish Time: 4:18:40 | STD: 0:46:50
Ogden Marathon - 2010 Results
Finishers: 1966, Males - 1058 , Females - 908
Male Winner: 2:29:20 | Female Winner: 2:52:34
Average Finish Time: 4:22:10 | STD: 0:44:37
Salt Lake City Marathon - 2010 Results
Finishers: 1041, Males - 632 , Females - 409
Male Winner: 2:30:30 | Female Winner: 3:15:36
Average Finish Time: 4:26:11 | STD: 0:42:03
Top of Utah Marathon - 2009 Results
Finishers: 2026, Males - 1018 , Females - 1008
Male Winner: 2:23:07 | Female Winner: 2:44:10
Average Finish Time: 4:27:08 | STD: 0:46:24
St. George Marathon - 2009 Results
Finishers: 5618, Males - 3145 , Females - 2473
Male Winner: 2:21:03 | Female Winner: 2:48:29
Average Finish Time: 4:15:13 | STD: 0:49:42
Deseret Morning News/KJZZ-TV Marathon - 2009 Results
Finishers: 526, Males - 353 , Females - 173
Male Winner: 2:25:42 | Female Winner: 2:56:41
Average Finish Time: 4:22:40 | STD: 0:48:44

The other item about no one breading 2:20 involves a factor that many of you are not aware of that I am.  The men's champion of the race flew straight from Kenya, and his flight was extremely delayed from a tornado.  He had asked me for a hotel room while at a layover waiting for his next flight, but he didn't make it to SLC until 3:00 A.M.  He got to our bus stop one minute before our last bus.  To go with no sleep, and fly all the way from Kenya and still run a 2:21 is in my opinion just as impressive as him having ran a 2:18.  No sleep, and the super long travel has to account for at least a few minutes.

I didn't run UVM, but one thing that seemed to come out from people's race reports was that the very gradual downhill on extremely hard cement going down University Avenue seemed to help people run faster in both the half and the full. I thought it would cause people to slow due to the pounding, but maybe the fact that the surface is unforgiving and allowed people to get in a good rhythm was a positive thing. Any thoughts?

P.S. I hope UVM and Half keep growing.

St. George 2008 Average Finish Time: 4:17:34 with rain.
We had solid rain for the first 15 miles of UV. Not too bad but not ideal either.

Actually my theory of runners being faster by October than they are in May or June is a lot more valid with runners who fall into the "avg" 4 hourish zone. Basically anyone running over 3 hour for males and 3:30 for females is most likely going to be in much better shape 4 months down the road. 

Don't know about the marathon, but I considered conditions ideal for the half. I believe StG in 2008 had a driving wind too?

Conditions aren't ideal when your soaked through and running against a heavy rain. My shorts, shirt and shoes were completely soaked. However it wasn't the driving wind of 2008's stg. But we did have some swirling gusts. We'd get a tailwind for a quarter and then it would circle back around and slam us in the face. Holt and I both were talking about it durning the race.
My perfect conditions are like STG in 2007. Clear, dry and slight tailwind here and there along the way.

I'll agree with you there. It doesn't get much better than StG in 2007.

3:00+ marathoners are not useful for statistical analysis to evaluate how fast the course is because they are extremely unpredictable. In fact, I would go as far as saying that men slower than 2:40 and women slower than 3:00 are unpredictable. Most of them have a potential that is 30+ minutes faster, and that potential could randomly come out in varying degrees on years when they decide to train more seriously. So you could have a guy with a 3:20 St. George PR run 2:58 in Ogden next year. That does not make Ogden 22 minutes faster. That same guy could slack off during the winter and run 3:40 in Ogden next year instead. That does not make Ogden 20 minutes slower either. Or he could come to Ogden expecting to to be faster than St. George, go through the first half faster than he did in St. George (an undertrained runner is capable of hitting the first half of a marathon 10-15 minutes faster than he should), and then having a royal blowup. An argument can be made that random factors even out when you add up the times of 2000+ runners, but I am not willing to put my faith in that. Plus, even if they did, with the majority of the runners huddled around 4:15, how meaningful is anything from those calculations to even a sub-3:30 marathoner?

Faster times are much more stable because in most cases they cannot be achieved without serious training.  So this is what I will put my faith in. Runner A beats runner B by X minutes in marathon U and runner B beats runner C by Y minutes in the same marathon U;  runners A, B, and C have been hitting near career bests in shorter races around that time, while their marathon to 5 K time ratio is less than 10. Runners A, B, and C all break 2:40. Then runner A beats runner B in marathon S by the same X minutes and runner B beats runner C by the same Y minutes. If I can find three runners meeting the above conditions, I put a whole lot more confidence in saying that the difference between marathon S and marathon U is the difference of the respective times of our runners than in anything else - Course Tool analysis,  RunWorks calculator, perceptive arguments (I think I could have run the second half in this), statistical analysis, etc.

Sasha, you lost me at hello, lol.  Ok, just for fun and Sasha seems to have an awesome talent for this stuff.  Based on my UVM time 3:07:54.  What will I run at STG?  Also, predict Clyde as well. This will give us a plus 3 guy and A Sub 3 guy, all bases will be covered.  Paul, you want to see if you can out predict the great master on this one?

Wow Sasha you lost me too. But math was never one of my stronger sides.

No, I don't make personal predictions. I just make broad generalizations.

For fun (and because I've been meaning to do this for awhile), I'm updating my quasi-famous "Utah Marathon Comparison" elevation profile, and will add Utah Valley. This is always fun to look at, and is a direct comparison between races. I've got the profile for UVM finished, so I just need to slap on it on with the rest. I used a 5m digital elevation model (highest resolution available), and zoomed in about as close as I could while digitizing the route, so there should not be much in terms of cliff error. Unfortunately the overpass near the finish doesn't show up in the elevation model, since they usually edit out stuff like that. This means that the profile will be missing a hill, it will be a bit conservative. I suppose I could fudge something in. But the highway cut is present throughout the course, so that's good.

Anyway...I'll post it when I finish it. Here's the old one for reference:
http://marathongis.com/blog/?p=87

Mike I told you this before... "LOL" Don't make me get off this bike!

Mike:

If you happen to be at SGM in the exact same shape, you will run a bit sub-3:00. So let's say 2:59:00.  But it is unlikely you will be in the exact same shape given that a) you are really maybe a 2:50 guy, and b) you have just made a major improvement in that direction. If Clyde and Dave make it in the exact same shape, which is more likely, we will see 2:27 for Dave and 2:28 for Clyde. Again, assuming 2007 conditions, which will likely not be the case. But since Clyde and Dave will hopefully improve some, perhaps they would still be able to run in that range even in less than ideal conditions. On the other hand, if Clyde and Dave try to improve too hard and overtrain, we might see slower times as well.

In order to run your best you need to optimize your ambition. That means for a type A personality the perceived effort will be rather slacky and the preceding training might appear slothful. But it will actually be just right. One principle to remember is that if you do not skip your runs, most of your runs are 10 miles and longer, and the long run does happen, it is very difficult to royally err on the slacker side. As long as this happens, you can almost slack off as much as you want. Average 8:00 in the runs, hit race pace only once a week for only 3 miles, etc. You can get away with it.

Im just impressed that I made it into a disscussion. I feel so loved right now.
Just for you Dave... LMAO!

I've updated my profile comparison. It's not often that I work for free. Enjoy.

http://marathongis.com/blog/?p=140

Thanks for adding that Paul. Very interesting to look at those elevation profiles all together like that.

Thanks, as well.