Fast Running Blog

Haile just ran 2:03:59 in Berlin. That's 4:44 per mile. Good report at

http://www.sportsscientists.com/

What's sad is that several of us on this board could have been the top American finisher. The top american finished in 59th place in a time of 2:30 and change. I'm sure the poor showing is due largely to the fact that the USATF marathon championships is next week, but still...2:30? 59th place in the fastest marathon course in the world?

Here's another article, from IAAF:

http://iaaf.org/LRR08/news/newsid=47859.html

Not only did Geb set a new marathon world record, but Irena Mikitenko also became the 9th woman to break the 2:20 barrier, and the 7th fastest woman ever.  Just makes me wonder what these athletes could do at St. George, even though the course is aided and would not count for a world record . . .

btw, every time I have ever seen Geb, or he has been interviewed, he has appeared to be the perfect gentleman, always smiling, gracious, humble, etc.  He doesn't puff himself up, doesn't celebrate wildly, doesn't trash-talk, and doesn't disrespect other runners.  I still remember when he originally broke Paul Tergat's world record, he called him up and apologized.  Apologized!  What a great example to other runners of how to behave!

Congrats to Geb!

The entire race is online to see at http://www.universalsports.com/

Once there got to "Select Sport", then Marathon.

Or go to

http://www.universalsports.com//club/std/ViewCategory.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=23000&CAT_SPORT_ID=13048&DB_OEM_ID=23000&KEY=&SPID=13048&SPSID=105677

It was fun to watch such a historic race.

2 world records in 2 years, each a good deal faster than the previous record.  4:44 pace for 26 miles is absolutely astounding!

So how low can the WW go. We would probably all agree there is a bottom somewhere, but what is it? Can 2 hours be broken? That is 4:34 pace.

I think 2 hours can and will be broken, but it still may be a while.  But just in the last year, the WW dropped 1 minute!  So, who knows it could be sooner than any of us think if the right person, with the right genes, right biomechanics and right training comes along.

Amazing. It makes me sick to my stomach but amazing.

1:59:59 would take 4:35s? Only 9 seconds a mile .... I know its not only 9 seconds per mile .... but man, they're making their way there. That would definitely be amazing.

Seems like it was only a few years ago when KK had the world record with a 2:05-mid something. Now 2:05 is old news, and you've got upstarts like Ryan Hall running 2:06 (which would have been a big AR before KK). Nowdays, a 2:06 guy can barely take 10th at the Olympics. It is somewhat shocking to see WR's go down so much in so few years. I think it is a matter of 20 years or so when we see sub-2:00.

World record was 2:06:50 in 1997 and 2:05:42 in 2001.  So it has dropped 2:51 in 11 years and 1:43 in 7 years, so I don't think sub-2:00:00 is far off.  Though we may have reached a plateau for a while, like they had from 1969-1984, where it only improved 28 seconds.  Who knows.  I'm curious to see what marathon Wanjiru does next.

I have to think that if Wanjiru had run his Beijing race in, say, about 30 degrees cooler temps, he might well have threatened to break 2:04 as well. The temp at the start in Beijing was 69F, rising to 86 by the finish. It will be interesting to see what he does in his next 26.2 in favorable weather.

I'm not so sure a sub 2 hr is so close around the corner.  It took 24 years to get from 2:08:05 down to 2:03:59, a 4:06 drop.  4:00 is still needed to go below 2 hrs, which is 97.6% of the drop that just took 24 years to achieve.  If you look at the history of marathon records (http://www.marathonguide.com/history/records/ (http://www.marathonguide.com/history/records/)), it's evident that the curve has flattened....we've definitely gotten into the area of diminishing returns.  Yes, every so often there's a rapid series of "steps" downwards, but the steps have generally gotten smaller over the years.  

I hate to be the buzzkill, but if I were a betting man, I'd wager it'll be another 30 years before someone manages to get below 2 hours, *assuming* the IAAF continues to take the hard line on artificial aids (i.e. drugs and prosthetics).  I wouldn't want to bet against someone "technologically enhanced" in the next several years making a big improvement.  I also won't bet that the illegality of certain devices (again, like prosthetics) will become less clear in the future that might enable such a leap.  The Bionic man/woman, anyone?

The Bionic Man is my avatar.  But with our current economy I am not sure he is still worth Six Million Dollars.

Wanjiru would have run 2:02:30 - 2:03:00 in Berlin in a even paced competitive situation. My prediction - once Bekele moves up to the marathon he will run around 2:01:45 on a Berlin/Dubai type of course. After that the world record progression will stall for a while. If it is to continue, the new world record will be set by either a Bekele/Geb type  26:10 10 K runner, or a Wanjiru/Hall/KK runner that can do 26:30. However, sub-2 hour marathon would take either a Wanjiru/Hall/KK with 26:10, or otherwise a sub-26:00 10 K. I think it is possible, and can even be done by a white guy, but we need to be more gentle with our genetic pool to allow the genes to properly express themselves. In other words, until something seriously changes on the cultural level we will not see a sub-2:00 marathon.

I'm probably more with Dale and Paul on this. I think it's 20 or so years away. It's not just any four minutes. It's a tougher four minutes than it was from 2:08 to 2:04 because there is a bottom out there and the closer you get to it, the harder those minutes and seconds get.

Here's another perspective from an active.com article:

http://www.active.com/running/Articles/The-Great-Gebrselassie-Breaks-2_04_-Is-Sub-2_00-on-the-Horizon_.htm?act=EMC-Active&Vehicle=Running&Date=10_01_08&Edition=1&Sections=Articles&Creative=The-Great-Gebrselassie-Breaks-2_04_-Is-Sub-2_00-on-the-Horizon_&TextName=Read_The_Full_Article_On_Active&ArtText=Txt&Placement=1&Day=Thu (http://www.active.com/running/Articles/The-Great-Gebrselassie-Breaks-2_04_-Is-Sub-2_00-on-the-Horizon_.htm?act=EMC-Active&Vehicle=Running&Date=10_01_08&Edition=1&Sections=Articles&Creative=The-Great-Gebrselassie-Breaks-2_04_-Is-Sub-2_00-on-the-Horizon_&TextName=Read_The_Full_Article_On_Active&ArtText=Txt&Placement=1&Day=Thu)

Key quote from the article:

"Now that 2:04 has been broken, the record has been chopped halfway to 2:00, from 2:08. Will it be another 23 years until 1:59 is reached? Or will the next four minutes take longer to erase?

No one can say for sure, of course, but the idea is not as crazy is it once seemed.  Gebrselassie's countryman Kenenisa Bekele is the current world record holder for 10 kilometers, and has been selected by many as a prospective marathon record holder—perhaps even the man with the pedigree to approach two hours.

His 26:17 for 10K works out to 4:14 per mile for the 6.2 miles. In order to run a 1:59 marathon he would have to average 4:34 per mile. That's 20 seconds per mile slower for a little more than four times the distance. Does that sound doable?

Tanui himself has gone on record as saying he thinks sub-two is possible, based, he says, upon how he felt after running 59 minutes for a half marathon. It's easy to say that after you stop halfway! You can look at the numbers any way you like, but in the end anything will be nothing more than an educated guess."

Actually that was me that posted that last post....didn't noticed I was logged in as Kim.