Fast Running Blog

What are the chances of FRB bringing down the two power house, BYU and Weber State, next month in the Myomed Wasatch Back Relay?
This is my analysis.  FRB dominated the Del Sol Relay this year.  You guys ran with an average mile time of 5:38.  Last year Weber State won the Wasatch Back beating BYU by 11 minutes.  Now, I heard that the first guy on the BYU team shot out of the gate so fast that he missed one the turns, and then they had to back track.  So it could have gone either way, but we can't factor that out of the equation, because there is always going to a botched exchange (a dropped baton, someone not being there when their runner comes in, etc.), someone going off course, someone tripping over something and getting hurt in the middle of the night, or whatever.  There are a lot of what ifs, so let's just look at pure pace alone. 
Weber State had a pace of 5:57 per mile.  With FRB's pace being 19 seconds faster per mile, over a 180 mile course, that puts them winning by almost an hour!  But having run both races myself, I know that the Wasatch Back is much more rugged and at a higher altitude.  I have to believe that your pace will be a bit slower on the Wasatch Back than the Del Sol.  Will it be 19 seconds slower per mile?  Hard to say.  Probably not.  But the competition may be better this year.  It's hard to tell what the exact paces of the past years' teams have been, because the course varies slightly from year to year.  In 2005 both universities finished the course in under 17 hours.  But how long was the course then?  I don't know.
So my final analysis is this: it's going to be close.  Wow, that was profound.  But I would really, really, really like to see FRB pull off the upset.  Good luck to everyone participating. 
Now a word of advice.  I notice there are two teams participating from FRB.  I helped put two teams together from my work this year.  At first I wanted to do a fast team and a slow fun team.  But the other captain said, "Let's keep the teams even so that we can push each other along."  Big mistake.  As we got closer to the race, we were having people drop out.  Whenever someone on my team dropped out, I would replace them with a faster runner.  Whenever someone on the other team would drop out, they were replaced with a friend.  So, one of our teams ended up being significantly faster than the other.  That made some of the fast runners on the other team jealous (although they wouldn't admit it.)  The point is, don't try to even out your teams.  Have the fastest runners on one team, and the second fastest runners on the other.  And here is why - my analysis shows that you have a good chance at winning this thing.  Don't jeopardize it for the sake of comradery.  Chances are anyway, the second fast team is going to place well.  I think that the people on the second fast team will understand, and if they don't, too bad.  We're in this to win, right?  Well, that's just my two cents.  Good luck!

Looks like you put a lot of thought into this, Burt.  As for the 2 teams- they are already set and won't change, barring injury.  As for who wins the race- I guess we will just have to wait and see.  Our team from last year also took that wrong turn with BYU and ended up about 40 minute back from BYU.  As long as we have fun, whatever happens, happens.  The only thing to worry about is finding enough race vehicles...

By the way, Weber did not register a team this year to the best of our knowledge, so it will only be BYU plus whatever other fast teams show up.

Thanks for the support! A few thoughts and comments:
1. Yes, the course was a bit shorter back when BYU/Weber broke 17 hours. The course was something like 173 miles back then, and is 181 miles this year (up a few miles from last year).
2. Having run both WBR and Del Sol, WBR is probably 20-25 sec/mile slower as a course average. The altitude alone makes a difference of about 5-10 sec/mile. And Del Sol has nothing even remotely close to Avon Pass, Snowbasin Pass, or Guardsman Pass. The Weber and BYU teams of past that averaged under 5:50/mile were incredible.
3. The two FRB teams are split into "fast" and "faster". So one team is noticeably faster on paper, but there are no weak links on either team. Arranging the teams like this was a hard decision.
4. The Wasatch Back FRB teams will make the Del Sol FRB team look like Gallowalkers. We've upped the ante.
5. There is no Weber State team at WBR this year.
6. Agreed - it will be a battle for the top spot. Anything can happen during a relay. BYU and a few other teams will be very strong, so we take nothing for granted, but look forward to good competition! The closer the race is, the more fun it is.