Fast Running Blog

With the amazing racing at Boston today the question is re-ignited, could someone run a sub 2:00 on St. George?
I used to say that it would be very difficult - not "no", but pretty dang tough.
Now... Still difficult, you would have to have a lot of things in place - pacers or good competition, downhill training, weather, etc...; but the answer has to be "YES!"
What do you think?

Dave

With the right incentives, pacers, and runners, yes, I do believe it could be done, sub 2 hrs in St. George.  Also, Congrats to Paul Petersen with placing of 17th overall, and an Olympic Qualifying time of 2:17.....

the first half is too hard/ slow. The hills would drop the pace too bad and drain the legs. IMHO

I think another factor to consider would be elevation.

Add on the $1 million that St. George was once rumored to be thinking about throwing in!  Then you have that extra incentive.
Clyde you would have to think those monster of the marathon could pull off a 1:03 or so first half and then go 57 don't you?!

I don't... but that's just me. Others will say it's very doable but having spent so much time on that sucker I just feel those hills really slow you down on the first half and then they work you so hard you wouldn't be able to turn it over on the second. But I'd be happy to see it happen.

I think it can be done for sure. Kenyans aren't going to have a problem with the altitude. Get a field of both Mutais, Geb^2, Abel Kirui, Makau, Kebede Lel, Wanjiru and of course Merga and Ryan Hall. Kebede Geb^2 Lel and E. Mutai can close like crazy. Wanjiru, Merga and Hall wouldn't be afraid to push the pace in the opening miles. Then think about how Makau might be able to run 55-56 or something for the second half of that course.

Clyde, what do you think would be the fastest those super studs could do on the first half (considering it as part of a full, not a stand alone half)?

Maybe a 1:06ish.

Well... I run a 1:10 (back as a young spry fellow) and those guys run 58-1:00 in 1/2's.  And I run 1:13-1:15 first half of SGM, so that leads me to believe they could be 10 minutes quicker than me - which would be around 1:03.
Now lasting into a 57 for the 2nd half would be where the problems hit!

When did you run a 1:10 on that course? First half?

He ran his half pr at the Provo river half in 2008 (broke 1:10 by a few seconds)

Here's a blog post I wrote about this topic, back in 2007. This was when Paul Tergat was still the world record holder:

http://marathongis.com/blog/?cat=14&paged=2

Keep in mind that St George can get a tailwind as well. For example, we did have a tailwind, combined with perfect temperatures, in 2007. Eerily many people ran sick PRs that year, many of which have not been touched since. I will assure you that the tailwind had something to do with that! Sub-2 might be possible at St George, on a day with the right temps and favorable tailwind. The runner would have to be good at downhills (but they obviously did not affect the top runners at Boston this year...). I think splits would need to be something like 1:02:00 - 0:57-high. I think the inhibitor is not the "slow" first half, but rather having to break the world record in the half marathon during the second half. The legs may not want to turn over that fast for that long. But who knows. Many people thought that 2:04 would not be broken, and Haile did that despite being past his prime. Get a current 12:505K/26:4010K guy in there, who knows what could happen.

Yeah I knew Dave ran that time at the Provo River half but my question was when did he do it on the first half of STG? Much more challenging than the Provo River half... IMHO.
Paul- I agree that yes it isn't just the fact that the first half is challenging. But just as you stated could you run it that fast and then not be hammered to then turn it over on the second. This year at Boston they ran a 1:01 first (I think). That's this year with super conditions at Boston and it's first half is much faster than STG's first half.
But again it would be sweet to see. Maybe if the city of STG puts out that million dollar prize money for the first person who breaks 2 hours we'd get to see it... or at least watch a bunch of guys totally blow up at around mile 22.

This is different from any other marathon how?  ;) Or do you think they would blow up more spectacularly?

I have never run SGM myself, but I have plenty of friends that have, and given their prs there I would most definitely think a sub 2:00 is possible.  However, I do agree that many $ would need to be on the line in order for it to happen.

St. George 1st half is much harder than Provo River - I think my St. George upper half PR is mid 1:13's.  But ten minutes off that still puts the superstars at 1:03.

I was actually thinking about this again this morning on my run and wondered how many guys would ever run the same after they went after a sub 2 at SGM.  I can't image the pain and thrashing your legs would take going THAT FAST down those hills.  There may be some runners that would never recover.  I bet there would be sections where they would flirt with 4:00/mile - at least sub 4:15.

And the blow ups... they would be spectacular!

And of course, keep in mind that to cut time is much harder the faster you get.  I used to be able to cut 10-15 minutes off my marathon PR each race; if I did that now I actually might accomplish something with this hobby!  Really just saying that SG isn't as quick as many people think - but it is quick!

I'll tell you what - I wouldn't want to be in that race, I would want to be in the lead car watching the amazing feats of athleticism and carnage!

Yeah watching would be fun. Because the blow ups would put guys on the ground.... like face plants and road rash.  ???

Food for thought- 
http://runningtimes.com/Article.aspx?ArticleID=10507 (http://runningtimes.com/Article.aspx?ArticleID=10507) 

That food for though brings real data to what I've always assumed.

I think Mutai and Ryan Hall would be mad when they couldn't get in to St. George because of the lottery.   ;D

The problem that a sub-2:05 marathoner will have in St. George is that at that level the downhill is not as much of an aiding factor over any distance, and in the marathon in particular. Preservation of the quads becomes more important than the extra speed boost from the downhill. In fact, it may very well be that their limiting factor is not leg power so much as the muscle breakdown.

First half in St. George is slower than the second, but it is not that slow. Maybe a minute slower than the first half of TOU. Some data for me: 2003  TOU 1:10:29/1:17:17, STG 1:11:49/1:12:58, 2004 TOU 1:12:50/1:20:01 STG 1:13:05/1:12:14, similar trends in other years. In 2003 I raced 3 sea-level marathons after running STG and TOU, and opened with 1:12:09 (Richmond, VA rather flat), 1:15:?? (something low) Sprintfield, MO (hilly course), and 1:13:30 Huntsville, AL, flat but tired from another marathon a week earlier. In 2007 I opened TOU with 1:10:31, STG with 1:12:09, and then running in Memphis, TN with 1:12:43. I think it is reasonable to say that the first half of St. George is comparable to a flat sea-level half. Which means that you should expect around 1:01-1:02 from a world-record aiming runner on it.  Definitely not 1:06. Brandon Rhodes, while in about 2:15 honest course shape, hit somewhere in the range of of 1:06-1:07 on it in 1997. He finished in 2:15 after a blow-up, but that was a blowup not related to speed or potential.  So the question is if the sub-2:00 candidate would have the quads to live through a sub-59:00 second half.

I believe with specific downhill training the goal eventually can be reached, and will likely result in eventually breaking 2:00 on a record eligible course due to the removal of the broken muscle tissue limit and the neurological adaptations to be more economical at 4:30 pace. The question is, do you know a millionaire that would like to sponsor the attempt?

From what I understand nobody would just put up a million bucks to sponsor the event. Rather it would be some kind of insurance policy. Like in golf where they do it for someone who hits a "hole in one" in specific fun type events.
Looking at your 2003 STG splits and it looks like you ran too aggressive on the first half and was unable to negative split. That first half maybe should have been a little slower and then maybe the second half would have been a little faster.

Clyde:

I've tried easing off in the first half multiple times, and what happens is that I still run slow in the second. It appears that I lose speed from just being out there, not necessarily from running hard. That is just the challenge I have to live with and accept until I am able to understand and fix the underlying cause.