Fast Running Blog

Who do you like and why?

For me, I'm going with Ryan Hall. Two words: young talent. If his first marathon was as good as it was, what will his second be like? Being the fastest half marathoner in the US history helps too.

I agree, barring some serious disaster or another fantastic breakthrough from Hobie, Ryan Hall. He is the most fit, and he also knows something about approach the race with the right attitude, the lack of which often brings on a disaster to the favorites.

Ok, I voted Hall as well but I think you left off a major contender. Khalid is being written off by almost everyone but he did run a 2:07 less than 2 years ago and has the best resume. So in the poll some other dude may be the best bet.

No offense to Khalid-what he's done in the past has been remarkable, and I even have a signed shirt from him-but I don't know if I would want him running as one of the three. I would rather take a consistant runner doing a 2:14 at the Olympics than another Khalid 18th mile drop out. Even when he was running some of his best times and wearing the US jersey he dropped out (WC in Edmonton) and having him on the team would be a bit of a gamble. He ran the 2:07 two years ago, and is recovering now, but I don't think we can expect him to run 2 important marathons in less than a year without another injury/dropout. That being said, I think we'll see a top three of Meb, Abdi, and Hall (not necessarily in that order). Abdi has had a fantastic season and it would be great to see him in the marathon at the olympics.

I agree with the prediction for Ryan Hall winning, but don't count out the following either:

Meb
Abdi
Alan Culpepper

Plus add some of the folks from the Brooks-Hansen ODP (Brian Sell), and we have an ultra-competitive OT marathon.  Plus the fact that this will be run on Central Park with lots of ups and downs, and we are not going to be looking at a real fast marathon.  I predict the winner will be between 2:09 and 2:10, with the other two qualifiers close behind.

I've heard Goucher may be running, based off a 10K qualifier. Is this true? If so, does he have a shot?

Looks like a good chance he will from this article.

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/2007/feb/13/runningxgoucher/ (http://www.dailycamera.com/news/2007/feb/13/runningxgoucher/)

I vote Hall too. But that may just be because I wan't him to win. After his half in Housten he got everyone pumped up. Then a very good fist marathon showing... so how will he follow it up. Does he have the mental power to run with the older guys late in the race? Or will he be killing everyone by then and won't have to worry about it in the end?

Meb has more experience than Hall and was doing well in London before he had to drop-out because of an injury.  I'm going to say them two will fight it out.

I would not vote for any one person beacause they are all so good.  This course is not fast though and so maybe it will not necessarily go to the most talented but to the strongest mentally and physically and also one who is good at changing pace and momentum throughout the race. I personally am pulling for the Gouch.  I would like to see him win over everyone else for a number of reasons. One is for some reason I don't like pretty boy Hall.

Abdi.  Hall's Houston and London performances were on pancake flat courses.  He fell off the pace in London from a small surge.  What will he do if it is a surge on a hill.  Abdi has the talent, he is working harder than in the past, and he has raced the final miles in Central Park.  Meb will play it too safe and finish second.  Hall will battle for third.

I voted for Abdi. I think the question of who will win is a good one, but trying to figure out the top 3 is what ultimately matters most, since some may be racing for 3rd rather than the win when it all comes down to it.  Also, I wouldn't write off Peter Gilmore, top American at Boston.   Here's my guess for top 3:

Abdi
Meb
Hall

Meb - Although the idea of top 3 is what is important.  I think Meb has the experience to position himself perfect and then pick off the field as they drop.

Although I voted for Hall previously, I agree with Chad in that I think the top three finishers (in no particular order) will be Hall, Meb and Abdi.

I'll go with Hall, Ritz, and Brian Sell.