Ted Leblow
Posting Member
Posts: 131
"Don't give up...don't ever give up." - Jimmy V.
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« on: September 21, 2007, 07:07:18 pm » |
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My guess is 5. I will not try and name them as I do not want to jinx anyone. I hope it is more but 5 would be good.
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Superfly
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2007, 08:25:21 pm » |
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I wish there would be more but...the qualifing times are set that low for a reason. It's just not that easy. I guess there could be a couple more from out of state guys that show up I may not really know. I'm saying three Utah guys. I guess it would be good in this case that I was wrong.
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Kory Wheatley
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2007, 12:07:18 am » |
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I think 5 since it's considered one of the faster courses.
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Mike Kirk
Lurker
Posts: 7
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2007, 01:31:47 pm » |
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6! That is six, not six factorial. I wouldn't bet against anyone with the training everyone on the blog has put in. In addition to the bloggers there has to be a few more men and women who will qualify.
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Sasha Pachev
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2007, 05:31:35 pm » |
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In 2003 there were 5 qualifiers in St. George. This year we are having an increase in the number of qualifiers, about 60%. So I would expect around 8 qualifying times in St. George this year.
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James Winzenz
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2007, 12:00:20 pm » |
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How about we get more detailed with this - I think at least 2 will hit the "A" qualifier, with another 4 under the "B" qualifying time. Does anyone know if James Landers is running again this year? Other than the bloggers, who are the elite runners that will be at SGM?
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Sasha Pachev
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2007, 12:18:40 pm » |
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James Lander has absolutely no reason to be in St. George - the race offers no prize money, he already has a A qualifier, and the Trials are only a month a way.
Non-blogger OTQ potential entries I am aware of:
Nick McCombs
Mike Dudley
Dave Danley
Jeff McClellan (my training partner who has not yet been converted into the true blogging religion)
I am expecting a bunch of last minute surprise entries, though.
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Dave Holt
Lurker
Posts: 20
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2007, 02:00:47 pm » |
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Alright, here is my two cents. The qualifier is difficult for a reason. And represents a lifetime of effort. I think 4 will hit it. I'm thinking 2 "A" and 2 "B" qualifiers. Granted St. George is a fast course, and there will be a deeper "fast" field than ever, but in the history of SGM there hasn't been that many people run that quick of time. I'm going to go check on that... I'll add more in a minute.
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Dave Holt
Lurker
Posts: 20
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2007, 02:14:20 pm » |
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Okay, a quick check backs up some of my thoughts. In the past 9 years, there have been 6 runners who hit the A standard time of sub 2:20 - which makes for an average of .66 runners per year. Meanwhile there have been 10 B standard times - 1.11 per year. So on average, there have been less than 2 runners per year hitting sub 2:22 with the peak year being 2003 (0-A, 5-B; 2-A's each in 1998 and 2002) and 2005, 2004 each having no runners hit either standard. Anyway... through this mumbling, I think that this year will see an increase over the average because of the quality of the field, but no crazy numbers because of the difficulty of the feat. BUT PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG!
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Sasha Pachev
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2007, 08:43:48 am » |
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Some more OTQ potential runners I forgot earlier:
Mike Vick
Matt Harmer
Iain Hunter
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Michelle Lowry
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« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2007, 07:50:42 am » |
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I voted for 7+ because of the lady qualifiers. Don't forget us! (Not us like I will be one of them, us in a more generic reference to the feminine sex).
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Paul Petersen
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« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2007, 08:30:50 am » |
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Also Daniel Shaw is running. He has a 2:25 PR to his name, so should have a good shot.
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Ted Leblow
Posting Member
Posts: 131
"Don't give up...don't ever give up." - Jimmy V.
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« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2007, 09:44:57 am » |
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I voted for 7+ because of the lady qualifiers. Don't forget us! (Not us like I will be one of them, us in a more generic reference to the feminine sex).
Good point Michelle, you are probably correct as I would guess there should be a couple ladies who qualify as well. |
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Ted Leblow
Posting Member
Posts: 131
"Don't give up...don't ever give up." - Jimmy V.
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2007, 08:05:01 pm » |
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Ok, the number was 18! 7 men and 11 women! So if you were thinking men only it ended up being 7.
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Sasha Pachev
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« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2007, 09:24:58 pm » |
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Yes, I was thinking men, and I was actually off by one. One of the men was Canadian, so only 6.
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Poll
