Can I really do it?

[AndyBrowning]

Since Sasha pointed out that there are no posts in this section I thought that I would throw one out.  I am still trying to convince myself that I can really run a sub-3 hour marathon.  My training mileage has been decent except for a couple of weeks where I was wiped out due to injury or illness.  My biggest doubts are coming from the fact that I don't run very fast during my training.  I usually get in 1 tempo run per week but everything else is pretty slow (7:30-8:00/mile).  Can I really hit my goal with mostly base mileage?  My recent race times predict near the 3:00 mark but it is close (Hobblecreek: 1:23:58, Des News 10K: 38:21, Flat 5K: 18:48).

[Sasha Pachev]

Hobblecreek is probably the most accurate predictor of St. George due to the length of the race and the similarity of the courses. The predictor gives you 3:02 assuming sustained 70 miles a week from your Hobblecreek time. However, you must also take into account that Hobblecreek started late and it got hotter while most of your training is done in the early morning. On top of that you just started recovering from a week of sickness. There is another thing going against you in Hobblecreek, which could go against you in St. George as well, but not as much. You are an exceptionally cautious runner. I've read your numerous marathon reports and you have never hit the wall. A cautious runner does not run well in Hobblecreek because he is too scared to go the right pace in the first 6 miles. In St. George, the steep downhill comes in the later miles, so you will not be as scared to push there.

I would recommend hitting the first half in 1:30, and go from there. Actually, even better, run by feel to the half and do not look at your watch. Then check your split at the half, do not panic if it is faster than you expected, but set a goal to run the second half in a decent time.

[Cody Draper]

I should probably reserve my comment until Sasha has responded, but this way you have an un-biased opinion for what it is worth.   I would bet a lot of money on the fact that you could break 3 hr.  I am not a betting man and I consider myself frugal (while everone else would call me cheap) so that must be saying something.  Your training has been very consistant and I don't think that speed work is all that critical for the marathon.  You can go a long way with tempos at MP.  I think that all you lack is the confidence and the pain threshold (I am in this club too).  You seem to be too conservative in your marathon with the fear of crashing.  You need to let it all out and set yourself up to do it.  As James (monaflash) always told me, run fast when you can run fast.  Don't save all this energy to hopefully pull off a miracle in the last 8 miles, but make it so all you have to do is survive the last 8 miles and your training will fill the gap.  Go for it!
I took too long to type this and Sasha already posted by the time I was done.  Oh well

[AndyBrowning]

Thanks Sasha and Cody.  I hit the wall in my first 2 marathons (pre-Blog days) which is why I am so cautious.  I guess since my goal is to go sub-3, I just need to go for it.  There really is no secondary goal since I've already done the Boston thing.

[Tom]

Andy I think we're alot alike. Seemed like my first marathons I was hitting the wall 2 out of 3 races or more and didn't like it at all. So I started taking the approach of setting conservative goals, training beyond the goal, which then made hitting the goal much easier but got me in the habit of not racing anywhere near optimum. Like you this got me the Boston qual I was looking for and what I thought would be the "be all and end all" of my running career and that I would just take it easy and run for fun after that.

Well then I went I joined this darn blog and next thing I know I'm running twice as many miles as I ever have, setting PRs and now considering what I always thought was impossible for me, a sub-3 marathon. I may also be driving my wife bonkers if I'm not careful.

I'm all for you going all-out for the marathon and throwing caution out the door. Like you said you've done the Boston thing, everything now is just icing on the cake. I wish you the best and look forward to running my next marathon with the same wreckless abandon (not doing SGM this year since at signup time I was still in "relax and take it easy" frame of mind). I actually look forward to running in a way likely to put me face-to-face with "the wall" just so I can see if the Sasha-approved training I've been doing and hopefully a new dose of mental toughness will lead to a new, better result than in the past.

[Michelle Lowry]

 I guess this is where the difference between running a marathon and racing a marathon comes in.  Racing implies risk and laying it all on the line (not in the first mile, but you know, by the end).  I certainly will not be waiting until the 1/2 to look at my watch, though.  But that is just me.

[Sirenesque]

I agree with the above posters.  Racing is about risk, putting it on the line, having the courage to face the possiblity that you may crash.  Good Luck, and race hard!

[Josse]

hmmmm.. I guess this means a change of mind set.  I like it!

[Kory Wheatley]

Andy:  You really have nothing too lose if you just try for it.  That's really the only way your going to know.  I'm going to go for it in STG to achieve a recent goal, because I don't want to think about it over the winter what would have happened if I pushed harder.  Beside you will know what to work on after the marathon, but I believe you can reach your goal.

[Sasha Pachev]

2:53:46!
I Believe I Can, I Knew I Could
http://www.lds.org/conference/talk/display/0,5232,49-1-315-16,00.html