Picking the right pace for my next marathon - please help

[Claudio Delfino]

I have a request for the Forum, as I need help in picking the right pace for my next marathon - Virginia Beach Shamrock Marathon on 3/20/2011.

I trained until today with the goal of running a BQ in March, for which I need(ed) 3:15:59 (an even better tier 3 for this year's registration would be 3:10). I based my training paces on a target 7:20 MP. Problem is, today I ran a 10K in 41:43. Now, if I plug this time in various online calculators, I get a projected marathon time right there, around 3:13 to 3:15. However, I recently read this article (http://www.hillrunner.com/jim2/id70.html) that essentially suggests multiplying the 10K time by 5 for runners with 40 to 55 mpw (which is where I am right now) in order to predict the marathon time. The same article reports that the online calculators are typically tuned for high mileage runners and give non-conservative predictions for inexperienced and low-mileage runners, such as myself, which is obviously pretty risky. So, using the "times 5" formula, I get a projected marathon time just under 3:29. I would then be inclined to targeting "break 3:30" this March, or 8:00/mile. I do my long runs at around 8:00 - did a 22-miler last week at 8:00/mile feeling good throughout.

One last piece of info is that today's 10K was affected by strong winds. The winner, a regular of the Washington DC local 10K scene, ran 32:02 today versus a 30:12 he ran last November. But that could be due to many different things. The winds were strong, but I do think that today race was an honest assessment of my 10K time, I was "dreaming" of breaking 40 but expecting between 41 and 42.

I am not afraid of a challenge, but would hate to go out too fast and hit the wall again this time around as I did in my first marathon. Can you help me pick out a reasonable marathon target time? what is your experience with the online pace predictors?

Thanks in advance!

[Jon Allen]

Claudio-

Good question.  My thoughts:
First, if you can do a 22 miler at 8:00 pace as a workout, you should definitely be able to do a marathon at a faster pace than that.  Between the taper and race-day magic, your race pace should always be faster than your normal long run pace (if your long run pace were really the same difficulty as race pace, your normal long run would wipe you out enough that you couldn't repeat it for a while).  In fact, I often found that a moderately-hard 22 mile run gives roughly the same time as a race marathon.

Second, I think the real answer comes down to your desires.  Would you rather go out at BQ pace, even if you bonk at the end and finish slow?  Or would you rather go out conservative, not bonk, but then wonder if you could have BQ-ed?  Ultimately, would you rather BQ or have the best chance to get the best time (which might not be different answers)? 

I often set 3 marathon goals for each race.  Then I just go by feel on race day- sometimes you feel great and end up beating your A goal.  But maybe you feel like crap and can't even get your C goal.  Either way, you don't have to decide ahead of time- set your goals, then see what happens.  You could have an A goal of BQ, a B goal of 3:20, and a C goal of 3:30.  You can see what you're on pace for at the 10k mark of the race, and adjust from there (which still gives you plenty of time to speed up if you feel great).

As for me, I figure races are a good time to go big.  I'd rather set hard (but still achievable) goals and occasionally miss them, then run way too slow and wonder "what if".  I can run slow on my own, races are for setting new records!  But that's just my 2 cents.

Good luck!

[April G]

My un-expert opinion--go for the 3:15:59.  My 10K PR from earlier this year is 41:43--identical to yours--and I just ran a 3:16:06 marathon, which probably would have been 3:15 if I hadn't been caught in the crowd the first mile and ran my tangents correctly.  So...based on your 10k time, you got the BQ!

[Claudio Delfino]

Thank you both for your quick and useful replies.

Jon - You made very good points. I think I am going to set a range of goal paces, probably 7:15 to 7:45 (i.e 3:10:00 to 3:23:00 finishes) which I think is my MP range. Maybe I could start around 7:30 for a few miles and see which way it goes next, depending on how I feel.

April - It's pretty neat we have identical 10K times and I am going to shoot for a nearly identical marathon time! However, I see that you run much more miles per week than I do... over 70 mpw which puts you in the high mileage runners for which the article I have read says the online calculators are good. So, guess what I got from the McMillan calculator when I plugged in the 5K time that you ran one month before your marathon? I plugged in your 20:07 from your blog and got a projected 10K of 41:47 and a marathon time of 3:16:07 !!! I mean, that's just one second off your actual marathon time and 4 seconds off your 10K PR!

All right, I am going to stick with my target MP of 7:20 and do some specific training at that pace over this next month leading to the marathon. I know the mileage is against me, which would mean a real risk of bonking. But the potential upside is sweet, and I love the challenge. I am going for it.

[April G]

LOL, wow!  I didn't realize McMillan had me pegged so close!  That is pretty crazy!